Facebook的命运：有人看好，有人唱衰

    Facebook上市已有两周多，在此期间，该公司市值缩水了30％，而我们越来越难以将此归咎于Facebook首次公开发行时在交易方面出现的小问题。其上市后的表现令人失望，严重损害了Facebook这一品牌，其负面影响甚至超过了那些自Facebook诞生之初就困扰着该公司的有关用户隐私权的争议。

    当然，股票市场总是浮躁的。而且，由于欧洲金融危机和中国经济的不确定性，今年春天显得特别不稳定。但是，不稳定是一把双刃剑：也许只需要一个满堂红季度，Facebook股票就可以像坐火箭一般，一下涨至其发行价38美元每股。

    现在最大的问题不在于Facebook股票的发行定价有何问题，而是Facebook能否实现强劲增长，以挽回投资者们的信心。整个市场为此问题展开了激烈辩论，Facebook到底是只牛股还是熊股，两大阵营讨论之激烈，就好像Facebook已经被拆分成了两家公司一样。一方认为Facebook的社交网络正在被大众抛弃，它将和曾经的MySpace一样，面临长期而缓慢的滑坡。另一派则认为Facebook是创新巨头，雇佣了大量硅谷顶级人才，它将开创我们未来的在线交流方式。

    这两派之间的分歧可以从华尔街分析师在过去几周给出的Facebook目标股价看出来。周一，伯恩斯坦研究公司认为Facebook的股价将进一步下跌至每股25美元或是更低。而一周前，Wedbush证券公司则对Facebook的股票给出了每股44美元的目标股价。基本上，真实的股价在25美元到44美元之间。

    科技媒体对此的争论更加激烈，主要围绕着Facebook是否能保持其高速增长速度，是否能从其现有用户身上获得更多收入，以及该公司如何才能在不疏远用户的前提下从移动网络上赚钱。

    Facebook迄今的增长令它成为了有史以来最成功的高科技公司之一，对于这一点，没有人会否认。Facebook的优势在于，其庞大的活跃用户数——每月9.01亿人，并且在继续增加——使它成为自然垄断，而且其用户数的增长在巴西和印度等发展中国家市场依然强劲。此外，来自支付等新领域的收入在第一季度增长了近一倍。

    Facebook的劣势则在于，在美国和英国等大市场中，其增长微乎其微，而在北美和欧洲以外的地区，该公司从每位用户身上获得的收入要低得多，而且该公司从每月所有用户身上获得的收入数量增长已经大幅放缓，即使在其最活跃用户中也是如此。

    Facebook对移动互联网战略的成功与否，将决定其是否能从用户手中赚到更多钱。而这又将我们带入另一场激烈辩论中。

    It's been more than two weeks since Facebook went public, and it's getting harder to blame the 30% drop in its market value on the trading glitch that marred its debut. Nothing, not even the many privacy controversies that have plagued Facebook's short history, has done more to damage the Facebook brand than its disappointing post-IPO performance.

    The stock market, of course, is a fickle environment. What's more, thanks to financial turmoil in Europe and economic uncertainty in China, it has been especially volatile this spring. But volatility is a two-edged blade: It could take only one blowout quarter from Facebook (FB) to send its stock rocketing back toward its $38 a share offering price.

    The big question now is not what went wrong with Facebook's offering, it is whether Facebook can deliver growth strong enough to win back the confidence of investors. And that question has created a robust debate between bulls and bears on Facebook's future, two camps in such sharp disagreement that it's almost as if Facebook were split into two companies. The first is Facebook the social network that is losing popularity and will face the long, slow decline that MySpace suffered. The second is Facebook the innovative giant that employs much of Silicon Valley's top talent and will be defining how we interact online for years to come.

    The disagreement can be seen in the price targets that Wall Street analysts have put on the stock in the past few weeks. On Monday, Bernstein Research saw Facebook sinking further, to $25 a share or below. A week earlier, Wedbush Securities gave the same stock a $44 a share target. Basically, the truth lies somewhere in that wide range.

    In the technology press, the debate has been even more spirited, centered primarily around whether Facebook can maintain its torrid growth rate, whether it can draw more revenue out of its existing members and how it can make money from the mobile web without alienating users.

    No one will deny that Facebook's growth to date makes it one of the most successful tech companies ever. The case for Facebook says that Facebook's active users -- 901 million per month and counting -- makes it a natural monopoly, and that growth is still strong in developing markets like Brazil and India. Plus, new areas revenue like payments nearly doubled in the first quarter.

    The case against Facebook counters that growth is negligible in large markets like the U.S. and the U.K., that its revenue per user is significantly lower outside of the North America and Europe and that the revenue it makes from all monthly users has seen its growth slow dramatically, even among its most active users.

    Whether Facebook can extract more money from its users will depend in good part on its strategy for the mobile web. Which brings us to another sharp area of debate.