超前Windows 8可能遇冷

    下个月，Windows 8就将正式发布了，这会是微软公司（Microsoft）的“新可乐”时刻（"New Coke" moment）吗？1985年，可口可乐公司（Coca-Cola）把这个著名饮料升级换代，推出了新一代产品，却没有得到消费者的接受。与此类似，对微软无处不在的各种老版本的PC操作系统来说，微软这次推出的最新版本可能也有点太超前了。如果Windows 8的发布笼罩在市场的困惑和负面报道中，那微软要和苹果公司（Apple）及谷歌公司（Google）在统治移动与平板电脑市场一决高下的计划就不容乐观了。

    多年来，微软一直因为没有推出能与硅谷的众多竞争对手相抗衡的创新产品而饱受诟病。17年前，微软推出了Windows 95操作系统。此后，微软除了推出Xbox游戏机外，基本上再也没有拿出真正能改变市场游戏规则的产品。现在，微软正靠Windows手机操作系统试图与谷歌的Android和苹果的iOS三分天下。它还曾投入巨资，以图赶上谷歌在搜索领域的领军地位。2007年，微软花了63亿美元收购aQuantive公司，试图进军互联网广告市场，但最终却惨败收场，最后该公司的市值在微软的财务报表上显示为区区1亿美元。

    微软今年早些时候对aQuantive价值进行减记，使其财报有史以来第一次出现季度亏损，堪称它在公共关系上的一个污点。也许有人会说，2008年微软在受到误导，拟用450亿美元的巨款收购当时已四分五裂的雅虎公司（Yahoo!）后又明智脱身，是它过去几年间最大的成就。如果收购雅虎的交易达成，微软将面临远比减记62亿美元高得多的巨额亏损。

    尽管麻烦不断，微软仍然赚得盆满钵满。这主要归功于始终占据市场统治地位的Windows操作系统和包括文字处理程序Word和电子表单Excel在内的Office套装产品。这两大产品分别占据微软总销量的25%和35%，贡献的利润则更高。据市场调查公司NetMarketshare的数据称，Windows系统占桌面市场的份额高达惊人的92%。因此，就算犯些错，投资失利，微软还是照样能称雄技术界和投资界，还能付给投资者高达3%的股票红利。

    微软之所以能在PC用户中保持极大的市场份额，原因之一是大家在工作场合和家庭中都已对Windows和Office非常熟悉了。换言之，它的主打产品大家已用得得心应手，这就形成了相当一部分的计算机用户基础。没人喜欢从头学新东西——比如怎么打开一个文档或关机。所以尽管华尔街总在抱怨微软缺乏创新，用户却从微软产品的延续一致性中得到了实惠。

    微软非常清楚用户对变化有多敏感。这就是为什么在它前一版操作系统Windows 7上，用户可以按自己的喜好改变某些菜单，让它看起来就像老版Windows。但在Windows 8中，微软取消了大量能让用户按老习惯使用的经典特性，还加入了大量新功能，而这些功能对使用鼠标和键盘操作的传统桌面系统来说并不太好用。

    实际上，Windows 8主要是为使用触摸屏的PC机设计的，而这是一个刚刚兴起的市场领域。比如，在Windows 8的预发布版中，开发者和用户很难弄清如何关掉欢迎界面，直接访问文件。要想这么做，就得用指尖向上划动，对触摸屏使用者来说，这是个再自然不过的动作，但对用惯鼠标和键盘的人来说这就非常陌生了。

    Will the launch of Windows 8 next month be Microsoft's "New Coke" moment? Like when Coca-Cola introduced a new version of its celebrated drink in 1985, Microsoft's latest iteration of its ubiquitous PC operating system may be too radical a departure from past versions, potentially setting off a revolt among consumers, as New Coke it did for Coca-Cola. And if confusion and bad publicity cloud the launch of Windows 8, the company's plan to take on Apple and Google in the battle to control mobile and tablet markets could be jeopardized.

    Microsoft (MSFT) has been criticized for years for its lack of innovation compared to rivals down in Silicon Valley. Besides the launch of its Xbox gaming system, Microsoft has largely failed to come to market with a truly game-changing product since the launch of its Windows 95 operating system seventeen years ago. The company's current Windows phones have struggled competing with Google (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS. The company has also shredded billions of dollars to catch up with Google's lead in search. Its attempts to make inroads in the internet advertising market with the $6.3 billion acquisition of aQuantive in 2007 was a rout that ultimately forced the firm to write the value of the company down to a mere $100 million.

    The aQuantive write down earlier this year forced Microsoft to report its first quarterly loss ever, a public relations stain. One could argue that Microsoft's greatest feat in the past few years was walking away from its totally misguided $45 billion bid to take over the broken internet giant Yahoo! (YHOO) in 2008. If that deal would have gone through, Microsoft would be facing a much bigger write down than just $6.2 billion.

    Despite all of its troubles, Microsoft still makes money. This is due to the continued domination of its Windows operating system and its Microsoft Office suite of products, which includes the word processing program Microsoft Word and the spreadsheet program Microsoft Excel. Windows and MS Office make up 25% and 35%, respectively, of Microsoft's total sales and a much larger chunk of its profits. Windows has a desktop market share hovering around a whopping 92%, according to NetMarketshare data. So even with its fumbles and failed ventures, the company remains relevant in the technology world as well as in the investment world, paying out a fat 3% dividend yield to shareholders.

    One of the reasons why Microsoft has been able to maintain its massive market share among PC users is the widespread familiarity with Windows and MS Office in both the workplace and at home. Literacy in its major products form part of the bedrock of computing, in other words. No one likes to relearn something -- like how to open a document or shut down a computer. So while Wall Street complains about the firm's lack of innovation, users benefit from the consistency in Microsoft products.

    Microsoft knows very well how sensitive users are to change. That's why on its latest operating system, Windows 7, users have the ability to customize certain menus to look like they did in previous generations of Windows. But with Windows 8, Microsoft is taking away a multitude of classic features without the ability for users to roll them back. It also adds a slew of new features that don't work very well on a traditional desktop that uses a mouse and keyboard.

    It turns out Windows 8 is designed primarily for use on a touchscreen PC, an area of the market that is in its infancy. For example, in the pre-launch version of the operating system, developers and users have had a hard time figuring out how to get off the Windows 8 welcome screen to access their files. The way to do that is to flick up, a motion that is somewhat intuitive on a touchscreen, but is totally foreign using a mouse and keyboard.