Fears of a Greek bank run

    A pesos to drachmas comparison

    Unlike Greece today, Argentina's government had an arsenal of financial tools in 2001 to deal with its crisis. It devalued the peso and imposed capital controls. But as a member of the European Union, Greece does not have those options; it can't devalue, and because the Union has rules that call for a free movement of capital within its boundaries, it can't stop citizens or businesses from moving cash from one partner country to another.

    "The only way Greece could impose capital controls would be to leave the EU," says Michael Melvin, head of currency and fixed income research at global asset management firm BlackRock. "And there's close to zero probability of that."

    A return to the drachma isn't likely any time soon either, but Greek citizens do have good reason to believe that taxes are going to go up. The socialist government of Prime Minister George Papandreou has already announced a slew of tax hikes, including increases in the value-added tax, new excise taxes on luxury goods, such as yachts and cars, and up to a 20% tax on cigarettes, alcohol and fuel.

    In addition, a key tenet of the socialist government's plan is to go after tax cheats aggressively -- economists figure that nearly 30% of the country's gross domestic product goes unreported to authorities. For decades, Greece's shadow economy has thrived because many Greeks -- doctors, plumbers, electricians and lawyers among them -- conduct business entirely in cash. Much of that money has ended up in bank accounts in other countries, say economists -- and a lot of it is not reflected in national statistics.

    "The outflow of cash from Greece is not a new phenomenon. If you could calculate the outflow of the last 50 years, you'd get an astronomical figure," says University of Maryland economics professor Theodore Kariotis. "Greeks are a very sneaky people."

    The government's new rules intend to change that. Last week it announced new measures to encourage those who have transferred money out of Greece to bring it back within six months, no questions asked. They'll be taxed 5% on the total, however. Another option offered: declare the money, leave it in foreign accounts -- and be subject to an 8% tax. After that, foreign governments will cooperate with Greek tax authorities to pursue lawbreakers, says a source in the finance ministry.

    Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou hopes the government's new measures will produce results. "As the reform program unfolds, a lot of this lost, or quasi-lost, liquidity will come back to the system," he said in a mid-January interview. "It is an immediate concern, of course, but it is reversible."

    Maybe it is, but according to economists, money that leaves a country rarely returns. "I'm not holding my breath," says Global Financial Integrity's Kar. "Once [cash] leaves, it's hard to get it back."