Always bet on Blankfein
When we asked Intrade CEO John Delaney about the creation of the market, he cited a page of Goldman's website which read, "Our assets are our people, capital and reputation, and if any of these is ever diminished, the last is the most difficult to restore." It seems then, that if Goldman were to lose the services of Blankfein as CEO, it should act to shore up its capital assets, in order to begin the process of replenishing those of its reputation, and its people. After all, who has done a better job in that department than Goldman Sachs?
As of this posting, the market was slightly tilted towards Blankfein staying on board, with trading happening at $45, but it's been fluctuating quite a bit, as markets, after all, will do. The security is set to pay off $100 if Blankfein leaves, or $0 if he stays. We'll keep an eye on it between now and December 2010, when the contract expires.