Go ahead and default, Greece!
Turning it around
But defaults, even ugly ones, don't always spell disaster either. After its debt debacle, and the eventual devaluation of the peso, which made its agricultural exports cheaper, Argentina recovered too, growing 9% in 2004. Despite the years of negative publicity, it also became a tourist hotspot-the cheap cost of living and a favorable exchange rate made it a favorite for American tourists and it experienced double-digit increases in incoming visitors. After Russia defaulted on its foreign debt in 1998 and devalued the ruble, it grew 6.4% a year later.
For Greece to pull off a default-driven revival, it will have to be ready to anger a lot of folks, most importantly its bondholders. The country could also be forced to abandon the euro and return to the to the drachma, or some version of it. The fireworks over Europe, should Greece go that route, would be something to see.
But the gain may be worth the pain. University of Maryland economics professor Theodore Kariotis points out that dropping the euro would put monetary policy muscle, control and flexibility back into the hands of the Greek government. It might even help Greece keep Sisyphus' boulder at the top of the hill where it belongs.