Don't believe a word about electric cars and the coming lithium shortage

Lithium isn't oil - it's transistors

    First of all, it isn't in high enough demand to be as valuable yet. Potential controversies about the lithium reserves in Bolivia and Afghanistan depend on lithium becoming a hot commodity. But if the electric car industry takes off, people won't need to tap into new sources of lithium for about ten years, says Jaskula. That's assuming that the technology doesn't improve to make Lithium-ion batteries more efficient. Agassi thinks it will.

    "Every five years, you need half as much lithium to create the same battery," a pattern of advancement that echoes Moore's Law for transistors. "But if you stayed on the same technology," Agassi says, "we'd [still] have three billion batteries. That's about two centuries of cars even with growth, so lithium is not the problem."

    Lithium doesn't combust like oil either. Because it doesn't chemically change while it provides energy, it can be recycled. Only one company recycles lithium now, since saving it is more expensive than mining. The company is called Toxco, and it received a $9.5 million grant from the Department of Energy in 2009 to boost its lithium recycling abilities. More players will step on the scene, says Jaskula, if electric vehicles take off. Then it will make economic sense to recycle car batteries not only for lithium but also for other more valuable materials, like cobalt.

    This could mean that the people who will hold the power in the lithium industry of the future will be the companies with the best recycling technology. According to a report by the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, virgin lithium won't dominate the market in 2040, by which time this technology should be cheap. When electric vehicles roll out, the race to recycle better will likely be on.

    Of course, there's a risk in racing to ramp up recycling capabilities now, says Jaskula. That technology is only valuable if electric vehicles do well and scientists don't find a better metal for batteries in the next 30-40 years. It's going to be tough to predict what actually happens next.