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The case for a $50 billion Facebook

The case for a $50 billion Facebook

Andy M. Zaky 2010年08月24日
When will Facebook go public? How will it monetize its users? We don't know yet, but here's one educated guess about how much the social networking giant will be worth.

    Secondly Facebook will soon see a significant uptick in user-growth through international markets, which is key in making the overall platform very attractive to brand advertising.

    Finally, despite the company's massive customer base, it's still far outpacing Google's growth in users. According to recent estimates, Facebook grew its user-base by 150% in 2009 versus Google's 40% growth based on similar metrics.

    Even if Facebook doesn't substantially raise its revenue per user in the immediate future, that staggering user growth by itself justifies a valuation of nearly $50 billion over the next several years. Facebook is expected to earn nearly $1.8 billion in revenue in 2011 and that's based on a projected 600 to 700 million users. Google currently trades at a $150 billion market capitalization and the only thing standing between Google and Facebook is Google's revenue per user. If Facebook figures out a way to command similar revenue per user rates as Google, the company could potentially be worth upwards of $150 billion.

    It almost doesn't matter exactly when Facebook's business model meets its full potential – it is certain to have a welcome reception whenever it decides to go public. What investors will likely see on Facebook's IPO is a rally not seen since Google's IPO. Many investors missed out in getting ahead of Google's meteoric stock surge, and Facebook will give investors a second opportunity to participate in a blockbuster IPO.

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