日本财政负担加重

    但随着未来几周，对这次天灾的规模有全面的了解之后，其对日本不稳定的经济和捉襟见肘的财政状况的影响（包括对市场的影响）将开始增大。

    首先，来看看实际情况。日本有史以来最大的里氏8.9级地震已导致数百人丧生。一家炼油厂起火，核反应堆附近的居民被迫疏散。

    据CMA Market Data公司称，地震发生后，日本股市出现下跌，针对日本债务违约的投保成本上升6%。由于投资者减持风险资产，债券价格上涨。

    与近几周引发市场骚乱的高油价一样，上周五的地震已经再次提醒我们，老龄化、增长缓慢、债务缠身的经济体在灾难面前是多么脆弱，即便全球经济正处于扩张时期。

    来自凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的朱利安•杰索普这样写道：“日本的经济复苏已经失去动力，而重建成本对政府庞大的债务负担而言将更是雪上加霜。”他写道，最新一届日本政府早就该制定计划让政府支出更为可持续，但是这次大地震可能会令政府感到更加困难。

    经济学家对地震消息的回应主要集中在两个问题上：损害程度将有多严重，以及重建将给这个已经捉襟见肘的国家带来多大的负担。

    正如灾难发生之后的一贯情况，媒体对灾难的报道总是不一致的，一些评论家认为受灾地区占日本经济产值的1/6之多，而其他评论家认为这一数字或许应该是1/3。 考虑到这次灾难的规模和性质，可想而知复苏将会是多么艰难。

    IHS Global Insight的经济学家在上周五一份报告中这样写道：“尽管日本产业的主要中心似乎未受影响，但基础设施的破坏程度将非常严重。自然灾害还可能破坏这个国家新生的经济复苏，同时由于应急响应费用将使日本政府开支猛增，日本公共债务不断膨胀的问题会更加严重。”

    地震给这个业已摇摇欲坠的经济体还带来另一个打击。 日本在经济衰退中起起伏伏已长达二十年之久，按某种衡量标准来看，该国的债务负担是其年经济产值的两倍以上，这一比率仅次于津巴布韦。

    这正是日本被普遍视为经济灾难随时会发生的国家的原因，尽管由于高收入、高生活标准以及贸易顺差，日本在国内就能完全满足其融资需求。

    与此同时，购买长期疲软的日本股票已成为2011年最佳投资主题之一，依据的假设是全球经济复苏不均衡以及通胀不断上升将推高股票价值。这一观点将在今后数周接受严峻的考验。

    不管怎样， 没人知道财政拐点会出现在今年、明年，还是今后几年（这种可能性更大）。关于建筑物并未大面积倒塌的早期报告或许能带来一丝希望：地震并不意味着财政危机很快就会出现。

    日本大和住银投信投资顾问公司（Daiwa SBI）的首席市场策略师Soichiro Monji表示：“尽管受到的地面冲击比我之前所经历的任何一次都要大，但幸运地是，我们没有看到建筑物、道路或桥梁倒塌。”

    But as the scale of the tragedy comes into fuller view in coming weeks, the impact on Japan's unsteady economy and stretched fiscal position – and the implications for markets -- will start to weigh heavier.

    First, the facts. The quake, at 8.9 on the Richter scale Japan's biggest ever, has killed hundreds of people. An oil refinery caught fire and residents near a nuclear reactor were forced to evacuate.

    Japanese stock markets dropped and the cost of insuring against a default on Japanese debt rose 6%, according to CMA Market Data. Bond prices rose as investors pulled back from risky assets.

    Like the oil spike that roiled markets in recent weeks, Friday's quake offers yet another reminder of how vulnerable aging, slow-growing, debt-burdened economies are to a shock even in what is supposed to be a period of global economic expansion.

    "Japan's economic recovery has lost momentum and a large part of the reconstruction costs will add to the government's significant debt burden," writes Julian Jessop at Capital Economics. He writes that the disaster could make it even more painful for the latest Japanese government to take long overdue action to produce a plan that would put spending on a more sustainable track.

    Economists responding to the news of the quake focused mostly on two issues: how bad the damage stands to be, and how big a burden rebuilding stands to impose on an already stretched nation.

    As is always the case in the aftermath of a disaster, reports were mixed, with some commentators saying the affected region is responsible for as much as a sixth of Japanese economic output and others putting the figure at perhaps a third of that. The scale and nature of the destruction will naturally have a lot to say about how daunting recovery is.

    "Although the main concentration of industrial Japan appears unaffected, the extent of the infrastructural damage will be severe," IHS Global Insight economists wrote in a note Friday. "The natural disaster could also upset the country's nascent economic recovery while exacerbating the country's ballooning public debt issues, as spending by the Tokyo government will surge to meet emergency response costs."

    The quake strikes another blow at an economy that was already reeling. Japan has been in and out of recession for two decades, and its debt load is more than twice the size of its annual economic output, by one measure -- a ratio exceeded only by, um, Zimbabwe.

    That's why despite its high income and standard of living and a trade surplus that allows it to fund its borrowing needs almost exclusively at home, Japan is widely viewed as an economic disaster waiting to happen.

    At the same time, buying long depressed Japanese stocks has emerged as one of the top investment themes of 2011, on the assumption that an uneven global recovery and rising inflation will push up equity values. That idea will be sorely tested in coming weeks.

    In any case, no one has any idea whether the fiscal breaking point might come this year, next year or (more likely) years down the road. Early reports that building collapses weren't widespread perhaps offer some hope that the quake won't mean a near-term date with fiscal crisis.

    "Although the ground shocks were bigger than any that I have experienced before, we have fortunately not seen any collapse of buildings, roads or bridges," said Soichiro Monji, Daiwa SBI's chief market strategist.