CEO信心爆棚的警示

    美国商业圆桌会议（Business Roundtable）近日公布的第一季度首席执行官前景指数创下历史新高。这个已有九年历史的指数反映的是对未来销售额、资本支出和雇佣趋势的预期，该指数第一季度达到113点，比前高点整整高出了7%。

    对142位首席执行官的调查显示，92%的受访者预计未来6个月销售额将增加，52%预计将在美国招工。他们预计今年美国经济将增长2.9%，高于此前预期的2.5%。

    首席执行官们“预计未来6个月经济增长势头向好，需求的增长将催生更多的投资和就业机会”，美国商业圆桌会议主席、Verizon首席执行官伊万•塞登伯格表示。

    当然，“增长势头向好”并不能说明太多问题，毕竟经济仍乏力。但首席执行官们信心满满，这一点并不令人奇怪。十年来美国工资水平持平，而首席执行官的薪酬持续飙升。虽然此轮经济复苏疲弱，但许多增长都惠及大公司。例如，企业利润现已达历史高点（见上图）。

    与此同时，消费者却明显信心不足，原因是食品和能源价格上涨以及好工作机会匮乏。就想想首席执行官们对销售额和雇佣预期之间高达40点的差距吧。

    首席执行官们和消费者之间的信心差距，或许不能说明美国大公司已脱离普罗大众。但有一个迹象完全可以说明首席执行官们正在脱离现实——此次调查中受访的首席执行官们无一预计未来6个月其所在公司的销售额将下降。

    即便是在2004-2007年那段人们感觉良好的泡沫时期 ，每次调查都至少有一、两位首席执行官承认，其所在公司的销售额可能会下降。但这次一个人都没有。这无疑反映了大公司高管们的非理性乐观情绪。

    The Business Roundtable's CEO outlook index hit its highest level on record in the first quarter, the trade group said Wednesday. The 9-year-old index, measuring expected sales, capital spending and hiring trends, hit 113 – a full 7% above than the previous high water mark.

    A survey of 142 chief executives showed 92% expect sales to rise in the next six months, and 52% expect to hire workers in the United States. They expect the U.S. economy to expand at a 2.9% clip this year, up from a previous 2.5%.

    Execs "see momentum in the economy over the next six months, with increased demand fueling greater investment and job creation," said the group's leader, Verizon (VZ) chief Ivan Seidenberg.

    Of course, "increased momentum" is not saying much, as lukewarm as the economy has been. But that CEOs should be highly confident now is no surprise. While U.S. wages have been flat for a decade, CEO pay continues to soar. And as weak as this recovery has been, many of the gains have accrued to big companies. Corporate profits are at a record (see chart, above), for instance.

    At the same time, consumers are feeling markedly less confident, as a result of rising food and energy prices and the scarcity of good jobs. Consider the 40-point gap between the CEOs' sales and hiring expectations.

    The disparity between CEO and consumer confidence may or may not show that big U.S. companies are decoupling from Main Street. But here is a good sign the CEOs are decoupling from reality: not one executive surveyed in the latest round expects his or her company's sales to fall in the next six months.

    Even in the bubbly feel-good days of 2004-2007, every survey had at least one or two execs who admitted to lower sales ahead. But not this time. Score one for irrational exuberance in the catbird seat.