“奢侈品”在京成禁词

    从下周开始，在北京，千万别提奢侈品这三个字。

    自4月15日起，在中国首都北京，任何公司如在公共广告中使用该形容词或者其他几个与之近似的华丽辞藻，会被罚款近4,500美元。北京市政府在其网站上表示，这些词汇会导致享乐主义的盛行以及精神空虚。为了阐明这一观点，中国官方媒体甚至还列举了目前的贫富差距为证。

    此禁令有点儿令人匪夷所思。不仅从表面上看起来如此，而且还因为它违背了中国文化以及中国政府的现行政策。毕竟，中国消费者向来热衷于购买名牌产品。而且，中国政府一直致力于刺激增加居民消费。

    但是，北京市政府此举并不代表它会放弃推行消费主义。尽管此新规定一经颁布，便掀起一片轩然大波，但是奢侈品行业分析师表示，这条新法规基本形同虚设。诚然，对到处兜售“豪华瑞士公寓”和“优质法国红酒”的骗子们而言，打击肯定不小。事实上，取缔虚假广告很可能才是政府的核心目的，但对于主要奢侈品厂商来说，此规定无甚影响。通常高端零售商也不会在广告牌上做广告。

    “迄今政府在这方面的作为非常有限。”经纪公司CSLA的艾伦•费舍尔表示：“如果他们确实希望对奢侈品消费进行限制，他们会调整关税。”

    尽管按地区划分，中国目前仅是全球第四大奢侈品消费国，但据预计，其增长异常迅猛。费舍尔在最近执笔的一份CLSA报告中预测说，到2020年，中国消费者用于购买奢侈品的开支，将超过其他所有国家，在全球奢侈品销售总额中占到44%。日本是目前全球最大的奢侈品消费国，到2020年，其在全球奢侈品销售中将只占据24%的份额。

    没人对中国的增长潜力表示质疑。尽管中国人口日渐老龄化，但中国百万富翁的平均年龄只有39岁，比日本、欧洲、以及北美等地百万富翁的平均年龄年轻15岁。奢侈品是中国商业文化的重要组成部分。标有古驰（Gucci）商标的礼物不仅有助于顺利地打通关系，而且与装在信封里的现金相比，也显得颇具品味。一个香奈尔（Chanel）的手提包握在手，就能说明你的腰包有多鼓，当然最终也成为一种经济地位的象征。

税收问题

    北京市政府如何看待中国人的上述消费趋势呢？欲解开此谜题，不妨从中国的奢侈品税收细分项目着手。在中国，这类商品的缴税项目包括进口税、增值税以及奢侈品税。尽管中国政府确实在制定政策时考虑到了收入不均的问题，但它更在乎自身庞大的开支。由于在中国大陆对奢侈品征税高达30%，中国消费者中只有一半在国内采购奢侈品，相应地，中国政府因而损失了上十亿美元的税收。

    因此，问题在于，如果政府改变税收政策，情形又将会如何？问题的核心不在于中国消费者会缩减开支，而是他们会在何处消费。眼下，许多高端中国消费者会大老远跑到巴黎、伦敦、香港以及澳门等地采购奢侈品。目前，伦敦和巴黎的主要商场都设有能讲普通话的员工。而且，今年巴黎计划开设或者重新装修的豪华酒店的数量，超过了其历史上的任何一年。汇丰银行（HSBC）的分析师欧文•兰勃格估计，香港手表市场有75%是由大陆消费者带动的。

    最近，此问题亦引起了中文媒体的关注。中国房地产巨头、亿万富翁王健林最近对《新京报》抱怨道：“中国消费者乘飞机跑到国外采购奢侈品，只会给其他国家增加就业机会和税收。”王还表示，中国城市应该建设成旅游和购物的双重目的地，但鉴于目前居高不下的奢侈品税率，这一目标根本无法实现。

    目前看来，奢侈品厂商不仅在二者身上都压了宝——即中国城市将被建成旅游和购物的目的地，同时也尝试通过种种新办法，吸引消费新贵。奢侈品商店在中国大陆越开越多，奢侈品公司为了建立销售团队也投入了大量的资本。麦肯锡公司（McKinsey）最近进行的一项针对中国奢侈品需求的报告显示，奢侈品公司在中国面临的一个重大风险是他们开设零售店的速度不够快。

    普拉达公司（Prada）上周已申请在香港上市。分析师表示，该公司此举，一方面是为提升自己在亚洲的品牌知名度；另一方面，也是为了利用大量涌入香港的中国资金。据报道，箱包厂商新秀丽公司（Samsonite Corporation）也在考虑在香港上市。爱马仕（Hermès）公司已在中国开设了20家专卖店，去年第四季度，该公司亚洲销售额增长了45%。最近，该公司又在中国创立了本地品牌“上下”（Shang Xia）。

    有些分析师表示，中国政府的目标是在不扩大贫富差距的同时，保持相对安定的社会环境。鉴于此，奢侈品税率有可能会下降，国内奢侈品消费氛围会增加。汇丰银行的兰博格表示，有传言说，“手表税率”可能很快会下降，甚至政府有可能不再对手表征税。他补充道：“如果果真如此的话，就与奢侈品管制的观点相矛盾了。”

    译者：大海

    Starting next week, mum's the word on luxury in Beijing.

    After April 15, any company that puts up a public advertisement in China's capital city using the adjective -- or a few other flowery phrases like it -- will be fined around $4,500. The municipal government says on its website that such words induce hedonism and spiritual emptiness. The state media cites the growing gap between the rich and the poor.

    The crackdown may seem odd, both at face value and because it appears to contradict both Chinese culture and existing government policy. After all, China is known for its brand-loving shoppers. And the country's government is in the midst of a push specifically aimed at getting citizens to consume more.

    But this latest move by the government doesn't mean it wants to backtrack on consumerism. While the initial announcement of the regulation kicked up a fuss, analysts of the luxury goods industry say the new law is mostly meaningless. It may hurt the local swindler peddling "luxury Swiss apartments" and "royal French wine" -- indeed, suppressing false advertising is likely the government's core aim -- but the regulation is irrelevant for major luxury goods companies. High-end retailers don't normally advertise on billboards.

    "What they've done is pretty marginal," says Aaron Fischer of CSLA, a broker. "If they really want to send a message, they'll change the duties."

    Although China is only the fourth-largest consumer of luxury goods by region, its growth forecasts are heady. A recent CLSA report, authored by Fischer, predicts that Chinese consumers will spend more on luxury goods than consumers in any other country by 2020, accounting for 44% of global luxury sales. Japan, which holds the current "biggest spender" title, accounts for only 24% of global luxury sales.

    No one seems to doubt this growth potential. Despite China's aging population, the average Chinese millionaire is only 39, 15 years younger than the average millionaire in Japan, Europe, and North America. Luxury goods are an essential part of business culture in China. A gift with a Gucci label builds guanxi, or relationships, and is considered more tasteful than an envelope of money. Carrying a Chanel bag suggests you have a fat wallet inside, which is the ultimate status symbol.

The taxing question

    How does Beijing view this trend? For anyone trying to crack this analysis, the country's luxury tax hit list -- the products affected by the country's sweeping combination of import, value-added, and luxury goods taxes -- is a good place to start. While the Chinese government does seem attuned to income disparity, it also has bills to pay. But because luxury goods are taxed up to 30% on the Mainland, only one in two Chinese consumers do their shopping at home -- translating to billions in lost tax revenues for the government.

    The question, then, is what will happen if the tax changes. It's not a matter of spending less, but where Chinese consumers will spend. Right now, many high-end Chinese shoppers travel to Paris, London, Hong Kong, and Macau. Major department stores in London and Paris now have Mandarin-speaking staff, and more luxury hotels will be opened or refurbished this year in Paris than at any other time in the city's history. Erwan Rambourg, an analyst at HSBC, estimates that 75% of Hong Kong's watch market is driven by Mainlanders.

    The Chinese-language media has given attention the issue lately. Wang Jianlin, a billionaire property tycoon, recently complained to Beijing News that, "Chinese people sit on airplanes to deliver jobs and tax money to foreign countries." Chinese cities should be developed as both tourist destinations and shopping destinations, Wang said -- but they are prevented from doing so by the luxury tax.

    Luxury goods companies seem to be betting on both scenarios, as well as trying new approaches to tap the rising class of consumers. More luxury goods stores continue to open on the Mainland, with companies putting a lot of capital into developing a sales staff. A recent McKinsey report on Chinese luxury demand says that a major risk for companies is failing to open stores in China quickly enough.

    Prada filed a request last week to go public in Hong Kong. Analysts say this is both for brand awareness in Asia, as well as to tap the avalanche of Chinese money flowing into Hong Kong. Samsonite Corporation, the luggage company, is reportedly also considering listing shares in Hong Kong. Hermès, which has 20 stores in China and saw its Asian sales grow by 45% in the fourth quarter of last year, just launched Shang Xia, a Chinese spinoff brand.

    Some analysts say that the government's goal of maintaining a relatively peaceful society without a large wealth gap may actually lead it to lower taxes and build up luxurious tastes. According to HSBC's Rambourg, there are rumors that the "watch tax" could be lowered soon or dropped altogether. "That," he says, "would contradict this idea of clamping down on luxury goods."