美国标准：华尔街信贷市场活跃

    当上周标准普尔(S&P)迈出前所未有的一步，将美国列入负面观察，即未来美国信用评级可能从不容置疑的AAA级下调，投资者的反应和这一年来听到坏消息时差不多：打了个哈欠而已。

    似乎没有什么能阻止信贷市场和股票市场的牛市：三场战争，万亿美元赤字，9%的失业率，5美元/加仑的汽油价格，地震，飓风，核熔毁，主权债务违约，抑或打盹的空中交通管制员都不能。除非真人秀女星史努姬接过美联储(Fed)主席一职 (“她的肤色是晒黑的棕褐色，她身材匀称，她已做好准备”)，我们认为短期内这股“向上喊价”的势头不会终结。

    当然，这没有放缓资金流入零售贷款基金，又有5.32亿美元(数据来源：Lipper FMI)撤出现有的市政基金和共同基金，导致今年总额超过了120亿美元，进一步加剧了“太多现金追逐太少交易”的失衡现象。

    不过，该等式的“太少交易”部分可能正在发生变化。活跃于一季度的再融资、重新定价和股息资本重组活动在经历了地缘政治动荡期间的暂时停歇后，现已开始回升，有些待完成的交易规模相当大。IASIS、Manitowoc和Owens-Illinois的规模都超过了10亿美元，而亚洲投资者对Frac Tech Services 的杠杆收购交易也将带来17亿美元的融资交易。

    低门槛贷款也在大幅回升。据标准普尔旗下研究机构LCD称，年初以来的低门槛贷款额已达到庞大的303亿美元，远远高于上年同期少得可怜的17亿美元。除了IASIS，Neiman Marcus也在寻求20亿美元再融资。

    谈到这里，不妨将二次抵押贷款也加入回升名单。虽然此类贷款额仍远低于2006-2007年的峰值，但需求在改善。对于投资者，吸引力在于收益率；二次抵押贷款一季度平均利率为伦敦银行间同业拆借利率+975个基点，包括下限和初始发行折扣(OID)。发行人优选二次抵押贷款，而非夹层融资(mezzanine)，是因为后者更贵(12%的现金利率加3%的应付非货币利率)，而且通常提前偿还的罚金更高。

    据《华尔街日报》(WSJ)报道，对冲基金的管理资产规模现已恢复至(且预计将超过)三年前在信贷危机爆发前的历史高点2万亿美元。对冲基金再度遇热，大量投资者追逐收益率并愿意为此承担更高的风险。

    如果之前你认为糟糕的头条新闻会降低2011年成为信贷市场好年份的概率，现在可以重新思考一下了。美国银行美林(BoA Merrill Lynch)预计杠杆贷款和高收益率债券发行额将分别达到3,000亿美元和3,250亿美元，显著高于去年的2,330亿美元和2,840亿美元(新高)。不妨设想如果有一点好消息，情况将会怎样。

    资深市场人士坦言他们惊诧于经济基本面不佳背景下信贷活动的活跃。另一方面，企业盈利虽然称不上强劲，但延续稳步向上趋势。利率和通胀仍保持较低水平。当然，还有投资者口袋里那些已经放不住的现金。

    虽然美国作为审慎财政管理者的名声受损，没人相信美国正朝着垃圾评级发展。但我们确实在大量买入垃圾债券。

    本文作者Randy Schwimmer是Churchill Financial的高级董事总经理兼资本市场主管。

    When S&P took the unprecedented step last week of placing the U.S. on negative watch for a ratings downgrade from its once-unassailable triple-A perch, investors reacted the same way they have all year to the drumbeat of bad news: With a yawn.

    Seems like nothing will stop the bull market in both credit and equities. Not three wars, trillion dollar deficits, 9% unemployment, $5 gas prices, earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear meltdowns, sovereign defaults, or snoozing air traffic controllers. Short of Snooki taking over the Fed Chairman's seat ("She's tan, she's fit, she's ready"), we don't see the "bid 'em up" momentum ending anytime soon.

    Certainly it's not slowing cash in-flows into retail loan funds, which saw another $532 million (per Lipper FMI) exiting muni and mutual accounts. That brings the year's total to over $12 billion, further exacerbating the technical imbalance between too much cash chasing too few deals.

    The "too few deals" part of that equation may be changing. Refinancings, repricings and dividend recaps – features of the frothy first quarter, but stalled during the geopolitical turmoil – are resuming with some pretty hefty candidates. IASIS, Manitowoc, and Owens-Illinois are all over $1 billion in size. Frac Tech Services, a new Asian fund LBO, will add $1.7 billion to the pipeline.

    Covenant-lites also seems poised for an upswing. LCD says that year-to-date cov-lite volume is a whopping $30.3 billion, up from a measly $1.7 billion for the same period last year. Besides IASIS, Neiman Marcus is shopping around for a $2 billion refi.

    While you're at it, add second-liens to the list of comeback kids. While volume is nowhere near the heady days of 2006-07, second-lien structures are finding willing buyers. For investors, the attraction is yield; spreads for the first quarter averaged L+975, including floors and OID. Issuers prefer second-lien to mezzanine, which is more expensive (12% cash plus 3% PIK), and typically carries higher prepayment penalties.

    The WSJ reports hedge fund AUM are restored to (and predicted to beat) the record $2 trillion levels set just before the credit crunch three years ago. Hedge managers again have plenty of buyers looking for yield and willing to stomach more risk to get it.

    If you thought scary headlines would hurt prospects for 2011 being a banner in the credit markets, think again. BoA Merrill Lynch forecasts leveraged loan and high-yield bond issuance to hit $300 billion and $325 billion, respectively. That's well ahead of last year's numbers of $233 billion for loans and $284 billion (a record) for bonds. Just imagine where we'd end up with a little good news.

    Market veterans confide their amazement how deal activity is motoring through all the negative economic fundamentals. On the other hand, corporate earnings, while hardly robust, continue their steady upward trend. And both interest rates and inflation remain comfortably low. And, of course, there's all that cash burning holes in investors' pockets.

    Despite its frayed reputation as a prudent fiscal manager, no one believes the U.S. itself is headed for junk status. But we're certainly filling up on the stuff.

    Randy Schwimmer is senior managing director and head of capital markets with Churchill Financial.