人民币向自由交易迈出一小步

    你附近的银行有人民币出售吗？可能现在还没有，但人民币看来的确是正在推动海外交易放开。

    4月末备受关注的一个事件是新加坡希望能成为中国内地和香港以外的首个人民币离岸交易中心。之前在去年夏天，中国决定允许人民币在香港买卖，而1月份的一项类似举动则为一家中资银行在纽约交易人民币铺平了道路。

    纵观这三个消息，反映的是经济政治现实的复杂变迁。最显而易见的是全球人民币需求正在上升。随着中国经济持续稳步增长，投资者已注意到人民币长期将不可避免地出现升值，因此以人民币计价的资产将是良好的长期投资品种，特别是在美国和欧洲的主权债务担忧已影响到对美元和欧元的信心之时。

    中国官方数据显示，以人民币结算的中国国际贸易比例已从2009年政府首次允许中国企业用人民币结算贸易时的0%，相应地升至近7%。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)预计，到2015年以人民币结算的中国进口贸易比例将从如今的约1%升至20%。

    分析师们期待这种转变已有时日，但为何是现在？一个原因可能是中国政府的通胀担忧。道明证券（TD Securities）驻新加坡的分析师雷蒙德•洪表示，离岸人民币交易是抗击中国通胀的一种方式。通过允许贸易资本流入留在海外，中国政府将能遏制涌入中国的资金流，从而抑制通胀压力。此举也能增加中国商人的投资选择，但洪指出目前仍不是很清楚，离岸账户持有的人民币可进行怎样的投资。

    另一个原因可能是希望减少以美元结算的交易。“这并非是因为他们对人民币国际化特别感兴趣，”一位驻新加坡的交易员表示，“而是为了促成不以美元结算的双边贸易。”这可能有助于中国外汇储备的多元化；目前中国的外汇储备中美元资产占绝对多数。

    即便中国现在开始试水，距人民币在国际市场上自由交易仍有很长的路要走。首先，提供离岸人民币银行服务的逻辑障碍很大，因为交易通常需要获得中国内地高管或政府官员的批准。中国也不一定希望人民币快速外流，特别是如果海外交易影响到其对人民币/美元汇率的管理的话。大多数分析师都认为，进行一些再平衡符合中国和全球经济的长期利益，但快速的再平衡可能带来一些摩擦和不和谐因素。这些新颖的举措短期内肯定不会对市场有明显影响。

    不过，缓慢放开人民币交易，似乎符合逐步放松人民币盯住美元汇率的呼声。在这样的情况下，更富活力的人民币交易市场可能产生广泛的经济影响。例如，一些实施美元盯住汇率的亚洲经济体(如香港)可能最终改而盯住人民币。但鉴于美元波动对中国影响仍大，这种情况短期内不太可能出现。

    更普遍来看，放开人民币交易及放松人民币盯住美元汇率的举动，可能有助于很多国家减少将美元作为外汇储备货币。这样的转变如果能有序进行，将是良性的再平衡；如果过快，则可能带来不可预知的经济和政治后果。

    这些问题可能是中国政府在缓慢推进人民币正常化的过程中所不能忘却的。在这个推进过程中，当前放开小规模人民币离岸交易的举动只是一小步，但不管怎样，仍是须关注的重要步骤。

    Will the renminbi be sold at a bank near you? Perhaps not immediately, but a push to open up overseas trading of China's notoriously restricted currency does seem to be underway.

    In a late-April move that drew significant attention, Singapore bid to become the first offshore trading hub for China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), outside Hong Kong and Mainland China. The announcement follows China's decision last summer to allow the currency to be bought and sold in Hong Kong, and a similar move in January that paved the way for a Chinese bank to trade renminbi in New York.

    Together, the three announcements weave a complicated story of shifting economic and political realities. The most obvious aspect of the story: global demand for RMB is increasing. As China's economy continues to post steady growth, investors have warmed to the idea that the currency will inevitably appreciate over time, and that, as a result, RMB-denominated assets will be a good long-term investment, particularly as sovereign debt concerns in the United States and Europe have eroded confidence in the U.S. dollar and the euro.

    The percentage of China's international trade that is conducted in RMB has correspondingly spiked from zero percent in 2009, when the government first allowed Chinese firms to settle deals using RMB, to nearly 7% today, according to data from the Chinese government. Standard Chartered expects the share of China's imports purchased with RMB to reach 20% in 2015 from about 1% at present.

    Analysts have long expected such a shift, but why is it happening now? One reason may be the Chinese government's concerns about inflation. Raymond Hung, an analyst with TD Securities in Singapore, says offshore RMB trading serves as a way to counter Chinese inflation. By allowing capital inflows from trade to remain offshore, the Chinese government will stem the tide of money rushing into China and thus dampen inflationary pressure. The move could also potentially open up new investment options for Chinese business people, though Hung notes that it is still unclear exactly how account holders will be allowed to invest RMB held in offshore accounts.

    Another factor may well be a desire to conduct less business using the U.S. dollar. "The move is not because they're particularly interested in internationalizing the currency," says one trader based in Singapore, "But to facilitate greater bilateral trade agreements that would exclude U.S. dollar." This could help China diversify its reserve holdings that are overwhelmingly held in U.S. dollars.

    Even if China is now testing the waters, there is still a long way to go before China lets its RMB swim freely around international markets. For starters, the logistical obstacles to offering offshore banking services with RMB are considerable, as transactions typically require approval by executives or government officials on the mainland. Nor would China necessarily want rapid RMB outflows, especially if overseas trading limits its ability to manage its currency against the U.S. dollar. Most analysts agree that it is in the long-term interest of both China and the global economy for some rebalancing to take place, but a rapid rebalancing could prove jarring. While the measures are novel, they certainly won't move markets in the short-term.

    Still, the slow opening of RMB trade seems to correspond with a desire to gradually loosen the renminbi's peg to the dollar. In this context, more dynamic RMB trading markets could have broad economic implications. For instance, some Asian economies that have their currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar (Hong Kong, for example) could eventually choose to peg to the RMB instead. But given that China is still so reliant on the U.S. dollar's movement, that is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

    More broadly, a move to free up trading of the RMB and loosen China's currency peg could help facilitate a trend in which many countries move away from the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency. Such a shift, though it could prove to be a healthy rebalancing if it unfolds in an orderly manner, could also have unpredictable economic and political consequences if it happens too swiftly.

    These are the concerns China's government is likely to keep in mind as it slowly moves toward currency normalization. In the course of this march, the current moves to open up small trading operations overseas are baby steps, but they are important to watch nevertheless.