2025——美国房地产市场反弹之年？

    过去5年美国房价进一步下探，跌幅已经超过了大萧条时期——而且，没有迹象表明这样的自由落体式下跌将在近期结束。

    据标准普尔(S&P)上周二报道，1季度Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数再度走低。

    该指数已较2006年高点跌去33%。多伦多Capital Economics的保罗•戴尔斯指出，相比之下，大萧条期间的房价峰谷差也只有31%。

    这还不是上周二Case-Shiller的报告中唯一让人惊讶的地方。IHS Global Insight的帕特里克•纽波特Newport指出，经通胀调整的实际房价已回到1999年水平。

    戴尔斯称，参照人均收入和就业者人均可支配收入，当前房价已比通常水平低24%——房价低廉堪比媲美福特总统时期的情形。

    不要以为这些数据表明房价短期内随时可能上涨。尽管当前房价与十年前持平，美国的经济前景和大多数美国人的收入前景看来要比1999年时差远了。

    因为越来越多的美国工人不得不与廉价的海外劳动力竞争，导致人们收入下降。此外，美国人多年来用于弥补工资差距的负债消费现在看来也福祸难料。高额负债和政府支出收紧，可能在未来多年里抑制美国经济的增长，进而限制家庭收入增长。

    而且，最大的转变可能是人们对于住房的观点。在2000-2001年股市泡沫破灭后，许多美国人注意到了房产的持续升值，开始将房地产视为稳赚不赔的资产类型。但房地产泡沫的破灭说明这种观念已是明日黄花，这种倾向将限制意向买家的基数，尽管房价已经低得惊人。

    那么，在市场高点买入的房子多久后才能解套？不妨等到2025年。戴尔斯写道，在大萧条时代房价大跌后，房价花了19年才重回高点。如果你相信这是一次大萧条，也许2025年值得期待。

    House prices have fallen further in the past five years than they did in the Great Depression – and there's no sign the free fall is about to stop.

    The Case-Shiller index of U.S. national house prices fell again in the first quarter, S&P reported Tuesday.

    The index is off 33% since it peaked in 2006. The peak-to-trough decline during the Great Depression, by contrast, was 31%, says Paul Dales of Capital Economics in Toronto.

    That's not the only eye-opener out of Tuesday's Case-Shiller report. Real house prices, adjusted for inflation, are back at levels last seen in 1999, says Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight.

    Going by per capita income and disposable income per employee, housing is now 24% cheaper than usual, says Dales – making houses as big a bargain as they have been since Gerald Ford was stepping in White House garbage cans.

    But don't mistake those statistics for an argument that prices are likely to rise any time soon. While house prices are now on par with levels seen a decade ago, the economic outlook for the United States and most of its citizens looks a lot less optimistic now than it did in 1999.

    Incomes have been falling as more workers are forced to compete with cheaper overseas labor, and the leverage that Americans used for years to fill a growing wage gap now looks like a decidedly mixed blessing. Massive debt and government belt tightening are likely to keep a lid on the economy for years, further limiting household gains.

    And maybe the biggest shift is people's view toward housing. After the stock bust of 2000-2001 many Americans noticed their houses kept appreciating and started viewing real estate as a winning asset class. But the collapse of the housing bubble means that thought is mostly history, which will limit the pool of willing buyers even with prices at striking low levels.

    So how long till you get your head back above water on a house bought at the top of the market? Try 2025. In after the Depression-era housing bust, Dales writes, prices took 19 years to reclaim their previous peak. If you're in the market for a greatly depressing thought, it's a good one.