不解之谜：谁在推动美国油价

华盛顿的困境

    联邦能源监管委员会上周在年度执法报告中写道，2011年以及在可预见的未来，它的首要关注点是“欺诈和市场操纵”。今年，该委员会的执法办公室了结了多少案子？9宗。民事罚款总额约570万美元。这是什么概念呢？要知道仅仅感恩节这一周，美国人的加油支出就超过了2亿美元。

    在西弗吉尼亚州民主党参议院约翰•D•洛克菲勒四世（洛克菲勒四世正巧是石油大亨约翰•D•洛克菲勒的曾孙）的敦促下，联邦贸易委员会也自行启动了对油气市场的调查，希望能查清“石油开采商、炼油厂、运输企业、销售企业、实物/金融交易商或其他各方”有没有违反该委员会的规定——特别是其《禁止操纵能源市场条例》（Prohibition of Energy Market Manipulation Rule）。坎特维尔最近在参议院听证会上提问时，就特别关注了联邦贸易委员会积极贯彻《禁止操纵能源市场条例》的力度。《财富》杂志（Fortune）独家获悉了这些尚未公开的问题。

    联邦贸易委员会尚未宣布任何逮捕行动，可能要一直等到结案才会采取相关行动。司法部也一样，对此没有时间表。而且，联邦贸易委员会强调，它通常不会披露调查的存在，但这次洛克菲勒议员则选择将之公布于众。

    与此同时，美国商品期货交易委员会总是如此“全力”推进调查，它会调查上几年直到国会坐不住了，嚷嚷要求公布结果。（现成的一个例子就是2007年启动的油价投机大调查，拖了好几年后最终莫名其妙地不了了之。该委员会内部的一位高级别官员表示，“由于政治意愿不强”，调查根本就没有做出最终的结论。）

    多德-弗兰克法案（Dodd-Frank Act）令事情出现了类似的转机。国会要求美国商品期货交易委员会在今年1月前通过新的限制石油和其他大宗商品过度交易的条例。虽然有多年的市场数据可调取，美国商品期货交易委员会仍然要求参议员们能给出更多的时间以便进一步研究。

    保护消费者是美国商品期货交易委员会的职责之一，但它更担心伤害华尔街。委员们公开表示，担心有“控制狂”或“扼杀”市场竞争之嫌（这种可能性似乎没有：今年以来，美国仅原油合同交易额就有几万亿美元，远远高于全球约8,900万桶/天的石油实物供应量。）扼杀是这个市场最不需要担心的事情。

    10月末，在超过最后期限近十个月后，美国商品期货交易委员会终于制定了华尔街公司在石油等战略性商品市场上可建立的头寸上限。两位委员在对这一举措进行的投票中投了反对票，理由是它逾越了美国商品期货交易委员会的法定权限。

    然而，另外几位参议员认为这一举措还远远不够。佛蒙特州参议员伯纳德•桑德斯（美国参议院历史上任期最长的一位独立参议员）希望通过他所谓的《立即终止过度石油投机议案》（End Excessive Oil Speculation Now Act）能扩大这一做法。这一议案由包括洛克菲勒在内的8位民主党参议院提出，目的是遏制桑德斯认为即便是按照美国商品期货交易委员会最新的条例来衡量依然显得过度的石油投机行为。8月份，桑德斯备受指责，因为他披露了美国商品期货交易委员会的相关数据。数据显示：2008年7月油价处于历史高点近150美元/桶时，整个市场完全被高盛（Goldman Sachs）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）和隐秘的瑞士石油交易公司Vitol等大投机商主导。

    “我们当前最大的一个问题，”桑德斯最近写道，“是美国人能否通过国会遏制住华尔街贪婪、鲁莽而非法的行为，以及华尔街是否会继续扰乱我们国家的经济和工薪家庭的生活秩序。”

Washington's quandary

    For its part, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission revealed last week in its annual enforcement report that its top priority in 2011 – and for the foreseeable future – is "fraud and market manipulation." How many cases were settled this year by its Office of Enforcement? Nine. That represents approximately $5.7 million in civil penalties. Just to put that into perspective, the tab at the pump for Americans over the Thanksgiving week came to more than $200 million.

    At the urging of Senator John D. Rockefeller IV, the Democrat from West Virginia who, incidentally, is the great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, the Federal Trade Commission came forth with its own investigation into the oil and gas market, which seeks to determine whether "oil producers, refiners, transporters, marketers, physical financial traders or others" are violating the commission's rules – particularly, its Prohibition of Energy Market Manipulation Rule. Cantwell's questions during the recent Senate hearing paid special attention to the FTC's efforts to aggressively enforce that rule. The questions, exclusively reviewed by Fortune, have yet to be made public.

    According to the FTC, no apprehensions have been announced and probably won't be until the matter is concluded. As with the DOJ, there is no timetable for that. Further, the commission emphasizes that it usually does not disclose the existence of investigations, but in this case Rockefeller chose to make it public.

    Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is often so gung-ho about investigating an issue, it will probe it for years before Congress gets restless and begins clamoring for results. (A case in point: the grand investigation into oil speculation launched in 2007 that dragged on for years before being mysteriously discontinued. A high-ranking official inside the agency says the probe was never finalized "due to a lack of political appetite.")

    The Dodd-Frank Act led to a similar turn of events. Congress mandated that the CFTC approve new rules to limit overzealous trading in oil and other commodities by January of this year. Even with years of market data to draw from, the CFTC urged senators to give it more time to conduct additional studies.

    Protecting consumers is part of the CFTC's job, but it was more worried about hurting Wall Street. Commissioners openly fretted about appearing to be "control freaks" or "stifling" market competition. (This seems unlikely: In the year to date, the U.S. traded several trillion dollars of crude oil contracts alone, a number that dwarfs the amount of physical oil actually available on a global basis, which is about 89 million barrels a day.) Stifling is just about the last thing this market needs to be worried about.

    After overshooting its deadline by nearly 10 months, the CFTC in late October finally imposed limits on the size of the positions Wall Street firms are allowed to take in oil and other highly strategic commodities markets. Two of the five CFTC commissioners voting on the measure opposed it, stating that it overstepped the CFTC's statutory authority.

    Several senators felt the measure did not go far enough. Bernard Sanders of Vermont, the longest-running Independent in the history of the U.S. Senate, aims to expand on the rule through legislation he dubs the "End Excessive Oil Speculation Now Act." The bill, co-sponsored by eight Democratic senators, including Rockefeller, proposes to rein in what Sanders believes is too much oil speculation, even in light of the new CFTC rules. In August, Sanders drew criticism for leaking CFTC data showing that at the time of oil's record high near $150 a barrel in July 2008, the market was dominated by big speculative players such as Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), J.P. Morgan (JPM) and the secretive Swiss oil-trading firm Vitol.

    "One of the great questions of our time," Sanders recently wrote, "Is whether the American people, through Congress, will control the greed, recklessness and illegal behavior on Wall Street, or whether Wall Street will continue to wreak havoc on our economy and the lives of working families."