当供应链断裂时
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美国现在依然能感受到大自然暴怒带来的影响。俄亥俄州的汽车装配工人11月份发现，他们工作的时间缩短了，原因是本田公司无法收到来自泰国的零部件（11月下旬，本田公司设法让这些制造厂重新回到正常的生产水平）。另一方面，在日本发生地震之后，田纳西州戴克德市一家通常只为在美国本土销售的日产轿车（Nissan）制造发动机的工厂，突然不得不提高产量；因为日产公司需要将这家美国工厂生产的发动机发往亚洲，满足日本和东南亚市场的需求。 理所当然，2011年的事件已经迫使众多制造商开始重新审视其全球基础设施存在的问题。“近期这些‘黑天鹅事件’，即前所未有的自然灾害，已明显暴露出产业供应链的种种漏洞，”供应链专家法拉利说。“现在的问题是，我们是否过于追求成本最低化生产和超精益供应链，由此导致了严重的商业风险？” 这是一个令CEO特别伤脑筋的重大问题：盈利挂帅的高管们是否做好了准备，撤出低成本供应商和“实时”生产体系，转而接受一种更传统的模式——工厂贮存零部件以备不时之需，或者干脆投资建立备用设施？ 一些公司响亮地作出了肯定的回答。希捷科技公司CEO卢卡佐称，一些高端公司已经开始要求跟他的公司签署期限更长的供应合同。 分析人士指出，日产公司之所以比日本其他汽车制造商更迅速地恢复元气，是因为该公司能够提高其他工厂（包括戴克德市的发动机工厂）的产量。糟糕的是，日产同时也提高了泰国一家工厂的产量，而洪灾已经让这家工厂放缓了生产。2011年初，总部位于罗德岛州庄士敦市的法特瑞互助保险公司（FM Global）对600位首席财务官进行了一次调查问卷，了解他们最担心什么事情会破坏公司的收入来源。他们提到的最多的答案就是，供应链瓦解。请注意，这项调查是在日本地震之前进行的。 日产公司CEO卡洛斯•戈恩的看法更具哲学意味。“即将发生另一场危机，”11月下旬他在纽约市发表的一次演讲中说道。“我们不知道这会是一场什么样的危机，也不知道它将在何时何地袭击我们。但每爆发一次危机，我们都会从中获得某种教益。”如果他所言不虚，危机模式已经成为新的常态，那么真正的成本优势或许并不属于供应链最灵活的制造商，而属于供应链最稳固的公司。 译者：任文科 |
The effects of Mother Nature's wrath still are being felt in the U.S. Auto assembly workers in Ohio saw their hours cut in November because Honda (HMC) couldn't get parts from Thailand. (In late November, Honda returned those plants to normal production levels.) On the other hand, a factory in Decherd, Tenn., that normally makes engines for Nissan cars sold only in the U.S. suddenly had to ramp up production after the Japan earthquake; Nissan had the American plant ship engines to Asia for use in cars sold both in Japan and in Southeast Asia. Not surprisingly, the events of 2011 have forced many manufacturers to rethink their global infrastructures. "These recent 'Black Swan' or unprecedented natural disaster events have obviously exposed vulnerabilities among industry supply chains," says Ferrari, the supply-chain expert. "The question now is, has the quest for lowest-cost production and hyper-lean supply chains overridden and exposed vulnerability to significant business risk?'' It is a big, knotty issue for CEOs: Are bottom-line-oriented executives prepared to pull back from a system of low-cost suppliers and "just in time" manufacturing in favor of a more old-fashioned model that has plants squirreling away components for a rainy day, or, more dramatically, investing in backup facilities? For some companies the answer is a resounding yes. Seagate CEO Luczo says sophisticated companies have started asking his company for longer contracts on supply arrangements. Analysts say Nissan has bounced back better than other Japanese automakers because it was able to ramp up production at its other plants, including the Decherd facility. (One stroke of bad luck: Nissan also bolstered production at one of its operations in Thailand, which has been slowed by flooding.) FM Global, an insurance company based in Johnston, R.I., surveyed 600 chief financial officers in early 2011 and asked what they feared could derail their companies' revenue drivers. The most frequently cited answer? Supply-chain disruptions. And that survey was taken before the Japan earthquake. Carlos Ghosn, the CEO of Nissan, is philosophical. "There's going to be another crisis," he told an audience in New York in late November. "We don't know what kind of crisis, where it is going to hit us, and when it is going to hit us, but every time there is a crisis we are going to learn from it." If he's right, and crisis mode is the new normal, then the real cost advantage may not go to the manufacturer with the nimblest supply chain but the company with the most robust one. |
