巴西天价罚单可能吓跑外国石油公司

    这一罚款额相当于每漏一桶油须缴纳罚金约350万美元，远远高于美国每桶4,300美元的处罚上限。去年英国石油向墨西哥湾排放了400万桶原油，被处以总罚金约35亿美元，但也仅及雪佛龙现在泄漏3,000桶原油罚金的三分之一。

    但这笔令人错愕的天价罚款可能永远都不会得到偿付。巴克莱（Barclays）的一项分析显示，雪佛龙在巴西的资产总值估计只有41亿美元左右。雪佛龙巴西子公司很可能会宣告破产，让里约州政府一个子儿也拿不到。现如今，巨额罚款在石油世界已变得越来越常见。征收此类罚款的往往是像委内瑞拉、哈萨克斯坦这样的腐败政府，罚款就是变相的勒索，目的是从已经出产石油的公司榨取更多的钱。罚款也被用作政府接管石油资产的一个借口。

狂热的地方检察官

    在这一事件之前，巴西在处理与外国合作伙伴的关系方面记录都还一直不错。巴西一直鼓励埃克森美孚（Exxon Mobil）、壳牌（Shell）、雪佛龙和英国石油这样的外资公司积极参与近海石油业务，以此作为快速提高石油产量的途径，因为巴西国家石油公司既没有资金也没有技术独立完成这个任务。巴西希望到2020年实现石油产量翻番至每天约700万桶，使巴西成为全球第三大石油出口国，仅次于俄罗斯和沙特。

    但巴西的联邦体系已成为追逐这一梦想的绊脚石。联邦政府想把石油开采权使用费在各州间更多地平均分配，改变由开采所在地的沿海几个州获得大头的现状。里约州是这一计划的主要反对者，因为这会让该州在未来几年内损失约70亿美元石油开采权使用费。坎普斯和里约热内卢这样的城市早已规划将这些收入用于一些大型项目，尤其是2016年奥运会相关关项目。

    坎普斯的检察官们通过此案向联邦政府发出的信号是，要想拿走他们的石油收入，可得步步小心。如果雪佛龙被赶出这个国家，巴西成为西半球石油出口大国的梦想也将石沉大海。假如外资石油公司知道它们随时可能会被某个小镇上狂热的检察官赶出巴西，他们就绝不会再拿出什么资金来开发这个国家的石油资源。

    巴西需要外资石油公司的技术、设备和专业经验来发展本国石油产业。未来数年，光几个新探明的超大油田投产估计就要投入6,000亿美元。巴西还需要外资石油公司来维持生产。比如，单Transocean一家就经营着巴西60个现役海上石油平台中的10个。

    The fine is equivalent to around $3.5 million per barrel spilled and it dwarfs the U.S. maximum fine of around $4,300 per barrel spilled. BP's (BP) total fine for dumping 4 million barrels into the Gulf of Mexico last year came to around $3.5 billion, around a third of what Chevron is now facing with its 3,000 barrel belch.

    But the jaw-dropping fine will probably never be paid. Chevron's total oil assets in Brazil are estimated to be worth around $4.1 billion, according to an analysis conducted by Barclays. Chevron's Brazilian unit would probably declare bankruptcy before it shelled out one real to the Rio government. Egregious fines are becoming more common these days in the oil world. They are usually levied by corrupt states like Venezuela and Kazakhstan as a form of blackmail in order to extract more money from oil companies once they start production. They are also used as an excuse for a state takeover of oil assets.

Overzealous prosecutors

    Brazil has had a somewhat fair record in dealing with its foreign partners up until this point. It has actually encouraged foreign participation from oil giants like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell, Chevron and BP in its offshore oil business as a way of quickly ramping up production as Petrobras (PBR) had neither the money nor the expertise in doing it alone. The country wants to double its oil production capacity by 2020 to around 7 million barrels a day. That would make Brazil the third-largest oil exporter in the world behind Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    Brazil's federal system now has become a liability in that quest. The federal government wants to distribute more of the oil royalties evenly across all the states in Brazil, instead of the lion's share going to states on the coast where the drilling occurs. Rio has been a major critic of the plan as it stands to lose an estimated $7 billion over the next few years in oil royalties. Cities like Campos and Rio had already earmarked that money for grand projects, most notably, for the 2016 Olympic Games.

    The prosecutors in Campos are sending a message to Brasilia that it should tread carefully if it tries to take its oil money away. If it is successful in driving Chevron out of the country, Brazil's dreams to be the preeminent oil exporter in the western hemisphere would sink to the bottom of the ocean. Foreign oil companies would refuse to dish out any more money to develop the country's resources if it knew that it could be kicked out at any moment by overzealous prosecutors in small towns.

    Brazil needs the technology, equipment and expertise of foreign oil companies if it hopes to grow its oil industry. An estimated $600 billion will be needed over the years to get its newly discovered mega fields into production. Brazil also needs them to just maintain production. For example, Transocean alone operates 10 of the 60 offshore oil platforms currently in operation in Brazil.