中国玩具制造商的悲情假日

    “每个产品的油漆都需要经过三次检验，第一次是检验原材料，第二次是检验成品，然后客户自己还会再进行一次检验，”杨春梅说。培训、设备升级、采购新材料和多项测试等方面的开支已经将企业的经营成本推高了10%到15%。

    政府统计数据为杨春梅的说法提供了佐证。2011年上半年，中国玩具出口同比增长了31.5％，这主要应归功于亚洲和拉丁美洲的需求拉动。但中国玩具的出口值只增长了11.54％。

美国廉价玩具难以为继

    尽管中国政府一直积极回应美国新的安全要求，但他们也认为美国的反应过度，在中国官员看来，这是美方为应对国内就业压力而设置的一项技术贸易壁垒。“每当我们升级设备，改善安全标准，并满足了他们的要求之后，美国和欧盟就再次提高门槛。生产成本不断上升，严重伤害了中国出口行业，”国家标准化管理委员会（China's Standardization Administration）副主任方向在接受中央人民广播电台（China National Radio）采访时说。“我认为这些贸易壁垒不会保护美国人的就业机会，反而会伤害美国消费者的利益。”

    虽然全球玩具制造商都受到美国规则的影响，但世界80%的玩具源自中国。中国目前有2万家玩具制造商，雇佣了400多万名工人。

    中国市场研究集团（China Market Research Group）（总部位于上海）项目运营经理本杰明•卡文德尔认为，中国玩具行业在来年有可能重新洗牌。他说：“资金雄厚的大型专业公司将开始收购其他步履维艰的公司。”

    定价压力最终将挤压美国零售商和玩具制造商的盈利空间。“我们过去一直实行低价策略，是因为加价意味着失去客户，”杨春梅说。“但现在我们实在扛不住了，要么提价，要么拒绝订单。”

    因此，从中国制造商那里采购货物的美国品牌将不得不减少自身的利润，以维持生产。尽管这有可能导致一些生产环节重返美国，但卡文德尔强调指出：“大部分制造环节十有八九还会留在中国或亚洲其他国家。”

    迄今为止，美国消费者一直受惠于价格低廉的中国玩具。玩具产业协会（the Toy Industry Association）的数据显示，过去几年间，玩具的平均价格一直保持相对稳定，大约在8美元左右。但几乎没有人相信这种局面将延续下去。无论新法规是保护孩子的必要措施，还是反应过度，最终为此买单的将是美国消费者。

    译者：任文科

    "For the paint on each product, we do three tests - a test on the raw materials, another on the finished product and then the client will conduct their own test," Yang says, adding that costs for training, equipment upgrades, sourcing new materials and multiple testing have added 10% to 15% to her operating costs.

    Government statistics support Yang's claims. In the first half of 2011, toy exports rose by 31.5% year-over-year, mostly driven by demand in Asia and Latin America. But their export value rose only 11.54%.

U.S. prices

    Even though the Chinese government has been responsive to the new U.S. safety requirements, they also see it as an overreaction and a technical trade barrier in response to pressure to create more jobs in America. "Each time after we upgrade and improve our safety standards and meet their requirements, the U.S. and EU raise the bar again. The cost keeps going up and seriously harms China's toy export business," said Fang Xiang, deputy director of China's Standardization Administration during an interview with China National Radio. "I don't think these trade barriers will save any American jobs. Instead, they'll hurt American consumers."

    Although the U.S. rules impact toymakers globally, more than 80% of the toys sold around the world come from China. At present, there are 20,000 toy manufacturers in China, employing more than four million people.

    Benjamin Cavender, associate principal at the Shanghai-based China Market Research Group believes this will lead to consolidation in China in the coming year. "Big professional companies with deeper pockets will start to buy up other companies as they falter," he says.

    The pricing pressures will eventually pinch the profits of U.S. retailers and toymakers. "In the past, we kept our prices low because any increase would mean losing the customers," Yang says. "But now, we really can't afford it. We have to raise prices or turn down our orders."

    As a consequence, U.S. brands that are sourcing from manufacturers in China will have to reduce their own margins in order to maintain production. While this will likely lead to some manufacturing returning to the U.S., Cavender emphasizes that "in all likelihood the bulk of manufacturing is still going to come out of China or other Asian countries."

    So far, Americans consumers have benefited from the low prices of Chinese toys. According to the Toy Industry Association, the average price of toys has remained relative steady over the past few years, at around $8. But few believe this will last. Whether the new regulations are necessary safeguards to protect children or an overreaction, American consumers will eventually have to bear the cost.