2011年10大脱靶商业预言

标普500目标点位1,550点

    历史告诉我们，华尔街策略师们就是一群乐观主义的人。2011年也不例外：2010年12月彭博社（Bloomberg）的一项调查显示，市场平均预计2011年底标准普尔500指数将达到1,370点，对应涨幅为9%。但德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的宾基•查德哈认为，这样的预测仍过于保守。他相信标准普尔500指数将涨至1,550点，涨幅23%。不幸的是，2011年标准普尔500指数在上涨之路上先后遭遇了欧元危机、美国债务上限之争等多只拦路虎。2011年最后一个交易日，标准普尔500指数收于1,257.60点。

    看看查德哈最新的2012年展望报告，2011年预测似乎失败并未让他气馁。他在报告中写道，“我们相信公司基本面非常健康，估值极低，供需面强劲，这些因素最终将超越对风险的种种担忧”。查德哈预计2012年底标准普尔500指数的点位是1,500点，涨幅为20%。

S&P 500 at 1,550

    History shows Wall Street's strategists to be an optimistic lot. This year was no exception: on average, prognosticators expected the S&P 500 to reach 1,370 by the end of 2011, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted last December. That represented a gain of 9%. But Binky Chadha of Deutsche Bank believed even those estimates were tame. He proclaimed that the S&P 500 would skyrocket to 1,550, a gain of 23%. Unfortunately, a few things got in the way of the S&P's rise, including the euro crisis and the U.S. debt ceiling fight. Today the index sits at 1,250.

    Recent misfortunes haven't discouraged Chadha, according to his 2012 outlook. "We see very healthy corporate fundamentals, extremely cheap valuations and a strong demand-supply balance eventually winning out against the concerns about the risks," he wrote. Chadha's prediction for the S&P 500 at year-end 2012: 1,500, up about 20%.