2011年10大脱靶商业预言

萨拉•佩林有望角逐总统宝座

    每个人都愿意相信市场是有效的，能自动筛除错误信息和偏差，形成公允的价格。但2010年12月底，著名政治期货公司InTrade的数据显示，佩林获得共和党总统候选人提名的概率高于20%，结果证明这一次市场实在是错得太离谱了。虽然InTrade素以准确预测总统大选等事件的最终赢家而闻名，但一年后的今天，佩林获得提名的概率已降至仅0.4%（虽然她近日声称其他获提名者要加入角逐“还不是太晚”）。

    2010年，佩林获得提名的概率一度接近30%的高点，尽管此后这个数字大幅下降，但交易员们当时依然相信畅销书作者、政治专家佩林【据报道，她与福克斯新闻频道（Fox News Channel）的电视合同每年可进账100万美元】很有可能获得共和党总统候选人提名。顶着“茶党女王”的光环，佩林赚了个盆满钵满，人们真地以为她会竞选总统吗？如今，InTrade的交易员们又押注前马萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼, 罗姆尼获得共和党总统候选人提名的概率已升至74%。

Sarah Palin for Republican nominee

    Everyone likes to think the market is efficient, ferreting out misinformation and biases to create a fair price. So how wrong was the prediction market late last December that put Sarah Palin's odds at winning the Republican presidential nomination at better than one in five? Those odds come via InTrade, the market known for accurately picking winners of presidential elections and other events. It was so wrong that today her odds of getting the nod sit at a mere 0.4% (despite her recent proclamation that "it's not too late" for other nominees to enter the race).

    Even after her chances plummeted from highs near 30% in 2010, traders still believed that Palin, the best-selling author and political pundit who reportedly earns $1 million annually from her Fox News Channel television contract, had a strong shot at earning Republicans' nomination. But with the riches Palin makes as a Tea Party darling, did people really think she'd run? Today the InTrade traders are betting on Romney, whose odds of winning the Republican nomination have risen to 74%.