2011年10大脱靶商业预言

债券之王预言美国国债崩盘

    比尔•格罗斯不是2011年唯一的美国国债空头，但绝对是最受关注的一个。整个2011年，这位债券之王都在媒体上宣称美国国债将崩盘，谁知预言落空。3月9日，Atlantic.com的新闻标题是《太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）格罗斯：美联储都不买美国国债，谁还敢买？》（PIMCO's Gross Asks: ' Who Will Buy Treasuries When the Fed Doesn't?）。4月份《洛杉矶时报》（Los Angeles Times）的新闻标题是《PIMCO的格罗斯做空美国国债》（"Pimco's Gross bets against Treasuries）。5月份路透社（Reuters）又报道称，《PIMCO的格罗斯加大做空美国国债的力度》。

    Pimco旗下2,400亿美元的全回报基金（Total Return Fund）是全球最大的共同基金。格罗斯身为这只基金的管理者犯了一个非常严重的错误，他认定在经济不佳之际，早已高涨的美国国债无法延续涨势。结果，2011年随着投资者蜂拥进入这个最安全的证券市场，美国国债的收益率继续下降（同时价格上涨）。2011年底，格罗斯在言语中透出了悔意。2011年10月份，他在一份致投资者的特别函件中写道：“这一年我投资不利”。

Treasuries falling

    Bill Gross wasn't the only one betting against Treasuries this year, but he was by far the most watched. The Bond King created headlines all year predicting a collapse that never came. "PIMCO's Gross Asks: ' Who Will Buy Treasuries When the Fed Doesn't?" read a March 9 headline on Atlantic.com; "Pimco's Gross bets against Treasuries" read an April headline in the Los Angeles Times. "PIMCO's Gross raises bet against US gov't debt" Reuters said in May.

    As manager of Pimco's $240-billion Total Return Fund, the world's largest mutual fund, Gross made a grievous error in betting that already inflated Treasuries couldn't rise further amid poor economic news. Instead, Treasury yields fell further (and prices rose) as investors flooded into the market's safest securities. Gross was sounding contrite by year's end. In October he wrote a special note to investors: "I'm just having a bad year," it read.