2011年10大脱靶商业预言

金价暴跌

    对冲基金经理道格•卡斯凭借美国全国广播电视有线电视台（CNBC）的出镜率和成功的卖空理念拥有大批追随者。因此，当他建议2011年做空黄金时，立即获得了相当的关注。2010年，整个华尔街甚至金融界人士祖母一辈的人们都对金灿灿的黄金充满信心。然而，就在大多数人期待2011年金价将继续上涨之时，卡斯却在2011年元旦前夕断言，黄金投资盛宴已结束。他预计在2011年初金价处于1,350美元/盎司后，金价很快就会在一个月内下跌250美元，到年底收于1,100-1,200美元/盎司。

    卡斯表示，多重因素将推低金价：投资者已经习惯没有通胀的经济复苏；利率上升；全球股市上涨；甚至是美国政府解决债务问题等。这些预测无一兑现，而金价继续上行。2011年夏末金价达到了1,900美元/盎司，最近报约1,600美元/盎司。2011年10月份，卡斯告诉博客作者巴瑞•里萨兹，他知道持有黄金的合理性。但他搞不懂黄金真正的价值，不愿持有。值得注意的是他没有再预测金价下跌。

Gold crash

    Hedge fund manager Doug Kass has won over fans for his CNBC appearances and successful short selling ideas. So when he suggested betting against gold in 2011, he got some attention. Just about everyone on Wall Street and their grandmother was bullish on the lustrous metal last year. And most expected a good 2011. But before the New Year, Kass called an end to the party. After trading around $1,350 an ounce to start the year, he said gold would soon fall $250 in a single month and settle at year's end between $1,100 and $1,200 an ounce.

    Kass said a host of things could send it downward: investors getting comfortable with an inflation-free economic recovery; higher interest rates; rising world stocks; even the U.S. government addressing the debt problem. None of those happened, and gold kept rising. Prices hit $1,900 an ounce in late summer before recently settling near $1,600. Kass told blogger Barry Ritholtz in October that he understands the rationale behind owning gold. But since he can't figure out what it's actually worth, he won't own it. Notably, he didn't predict another fall.