2011年10大脱靶商业预言
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Netflix值得买入 我们不会一一列出所有栽在网络影片租赁公司Netflix手里的人——几乎所有看好这支股票的人都看走了眼。但华尔街分析师们自然是最惹眼的。2011年夏季 Netflix见顶于304美元时其静态市盈率已达到80倍，但几乎所有跟踪该股的分析师还是给出了买入建议。Piper Jaffray的迈克•奥森全年都维持“超配”评级，只是在Netflix股价暴跌后将目标价从263美元调低至了100美元。2011年12月30日，Netflix收于69.11美元。 回过头来，不难理解为何这么多人看好Netflix。《财富》杂志将Netflix的创始人里德•哈斯廷斯评为2010年度首席执行官，理由是这家在线影片租赁公司的用户增速惊人。而2011年，客户们发现有更多电影可以在网上观看。但Netflix的股价反映了最完美的前景，太多人却没有看清这一点。 |
Netflix stock is a buy We won't pick through all the losers on Netflix -- almost everyone was wrong on this stock. But Wall Street analysts were certainly the most vocal. Consider that when shares reached their peak of $304 in the summer, Netflix traded for 80 times trailing 12-month earnings yet it still garnered buy recommendations from nearly every analyst covering the stock. Mike Olson of Piper Jaffray kept his overweight rating on shares all year, only changing his target price from $263 to $100 after they crashed. (Today they trade around $70 a share.) In retrospect, it's easy to see why so many fell in love with Netflix. Fortune named founder Reed Hastings CEO of the year in 2010 as the movie rental company added subscribers at a torrid pace. And this year customers were finding even more movies to watch online. But Netflix's stock was priced for perfection, and too many people missed that. |
