美伊之争不会引爆伊朗石油危机

    作为回应，伊朗央行周三施行了自己的“量化宽松”措施，向市场注入了大量储备美元。里亚尔兑美元上涨了约20%，但美元需求依旧高涨。

    伊朗国内经济这次遭受的冲击应当为德黑兰的领导人敲响了警钟。而它仅仅是同美国唇枪舌剑升级可能带来的诸多负面影响之一。显然，只要愿意，伊朗可以成功封锁霍尔木兹海峡。它甚至都不需要出动海军。只需在最窄的水域上沉掉几艘驳船，放置几个水雷就可以了，这样每日出入波斯湾的几十艘超级油轮就无法通行了。

    但问题是：伊朗能承受这样的后果吗？显然不能。如果以这种粗暴的方式封闭海峡，不仅会阻止来自沙特、科威特和伊拉克的超级油轮通过这个海峡，同样也会阻止伊朗自己的油轮进出。由于石油出口占伊朗经济比重近60%，这样的打击将是灾难性的。当然，油价也可能因此飞升至200美元/桶，但如果伊朗不能将自己的石油运出，送到国际市场，它也无法从自己一手制造的混乱中获利。

    封锁波斯湾就等于伊朗自断手腕。来自海外的食品、燃料和其他重要物资也将无法运抵伊朗。由此造成的国内混乱可能引发大规模暴乱，因为伊朗大部分民众更关心自身生活质量，而非伊斯兰领导人同美国的博弈。

    同样，美国也极不愿同伊朗发生冲突，毕竟伊朗在国际石油市场具有相当重要的地位。虽然美国炼油厂不需要伊朗石油，但亚洲和南欧的炼油厂都在进口伊朗石油。一旦将这部分供应拿出市场，那些依赖伊朗石油的国家将被迫转向对美国出口石油的国家，造成全球供应减少，油价上涨。如果伊朗供应缺失，沙特和俄罗斯都没有足够的闲置产能来填补这个缺口，因此汽油供应肯定会出现短缺。结果可能会摧毁美国刚刚露头的经济复苏，并将整个欧洲推入深度经济衰退。

    美伊两国可能相互憎恨，但它们的命运紧密相连。考虑到战争可能对自身经济带来的各种负面影响，任何一方都不想发动战争。油价最终应该会平稳下来，因为有一点已变得很清楚，这场东西方之争更多的是关于金钱，而不是意识形态。

    In response, Iran's central bank yesterday instituted its own form of "quantitative easing," flooding the market with U.S. dollars from its reserves. The rial appreciated around 20% against the dollar but demand still remains high.

    This shock to Iran's internal economy should be a wake up call to the mullahs in Tehran. It is just one of possible negative side effects of ramping up the rhetoric with the U.S. To be clear, Iran could successfully close the Strait of Hormuz if it really wanted to. It doesn't even need its Navy to do it. It could simply sink a few barges in the narrowest parts of the waterway and lay a few mines. That would make the strait impassible to the dozens of supertankers that go in and out of the Persian Gulf everyday.

    But the question is: can Iran afford it? Clearly not. Shutting the straits down in such a crude fashion would not only block supertankers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq from getting through the strait, but would also block its own super tankers from getting through as well. With the oil trade making up around 60% of Iran's economy, that would be disastrous. Sure, oil could spike as high as $200 a barrel, but if Iran can't get its oil out to market, it won't be able to profit off the chaos it created.

    Shutting down the Persian Gulf would be equivalent to Iran slicing its own wrists. Vital deliveries of food, fuel and other goods from abroad would have no way of reaching the country. The internal chaos created could see a mass revolt in the country where the majority of the population cares more about their quality of life than the Mullah's chess game with Washington.

    Likewise, the U.S. would loathe having a conflict with Iran given how important it is to the international oil markets. While Iranian oil doesn't run through U.S. refineries, it does run through those in Asia and Southern Europe. Taking that supply off the market will force those countries that depend on Iranian oil to look to other countries that do export oil to the U.S., therefore decreasing worldwide supply and causing prices to spike. Saudi Arabia and Russia do not have enough spare capacity to replace all the barrels lost if Iran were to go offline, so there would certainly be shortages at the gas pump. The result could crush the nascent economic recovery in the U.S. and push all of Europe into a deep recession.

    The U.S. and Iran may hate each other, but their fates are inextricably linked. Neither side is itching for war given all the negative side effects that could come to both of their economies. Oil prices should eventually calm as it becomes clear that this battle between East and West is more about dollars than ideology.