2012美国汽车业10大悬念

5.中国经济降温，谁的冬天来临？

    通用和大众是在中国做得最大的两家西方汽车厂商，一些德国豪车品牌也有相当一部分销量依赖于中国市场。奥迪（Audi）是中国豪车市场的领军品牌，它在中国卖出的汽车是在美国的两倍，宝马（BMW）在中国的销量也与奥迪旗鼓相当。作为世界第二大高端汽车消费市场，如果中国无法维持往年的增长速度，许多制定了宏伟扩张计划的高端品牌可能要失望了。

6. 欧宝何去何从

    通用汽车公司2009年曾想将欧宝（Opel）出售，目前正再次试图对欧宝进行重组，这可不是件容易的事。在欧债危机影响下，欧洲车市也迎来了严冬。另外，欧洲汽车产业长期以来一直存在产能过剩的问题，明年产能过剩率或将达到20%。欧宝的市场占有率仅有8%左右，并不处在优势地位，而且它的品牌形象较为模糊，很容易被大众汽车压倒。通用已经把支持欧宝的副总裁史蒂夫•吉斯基派到了欧宝任职，希望通过削减成本，更好地将其整合到通用的全球运营中，使欧宝起死回生。欧宝迄今已经历多次裁员，员工屡受打击。就算欧洲经济继续恶化下去，吉斯基的改革也可能会面临来自欧宝员工的内部阻力。

7. 2013款福特福星有望加冕明年的年度轿车吗？

    福特福星（Fusion）一直是畅销榜上的常青树，2013款福星轿车经历了彻头彻尾的升级换代，而且被搬到了全球平台上。新款福星将在一月初面世，在面世之前，福特一直对新款福星的细节守口如瓶。除了鲜明的设计风格之外，新款福星预计还将采用一系列史无前例的动力配置，预计将为业界设立新的节油标准。它很可能将与升级后的宝马3系争夺2012年度轿车的桂冠。

8. 福特总裁艾伦•穆拉利何时退休？

    新款福星的发布将再次强有力地证明穆拉利“一个福特”战略的正确性，因此穆拉利可能会借此光荣退休。不过现在看来，这位精力充沛的66岁老人还没有要退休的迹象。福特一向有突然换帅的历史，很少有权力平稳交接的经验，而且现在看来福特也没有计划，指定一个继任者以便穆拉利“传帮带”一段时间。考虑到穆拉利任内的卓越表现以及他对福特股价的影响，因此一旦福特突然换帅，投资人可能会大受震动。

9. 电动汽车制造商特斯拉（Tesla）和菲斯科（Fisker）是否会成为共和党的出气筒？因为它们也像通用和Solyndra公司一样花着联邦政府的银子。

    为了鼓励可充电汽车的研发和生产，奥巴马政府大手笔为这两家初创公司提供了总计超过10亿美元的能源部（Energy Department）贷款担保。共和党指责这笔钱花错了地方。2012年，这两家公司都要开始发布新车了。如果其中任何一家公司掉了链子，来自共和党的攻击和指责将不可必免。

10. 电影《谍中谍4》的上映会不会刺激宝马的销量？

    宝马公司一向擅于在好莱坞大片中搞植入式广告。它在四部007系列电影中都植入了自己的广告，现在又让阿汤哥在《谍中谍4：幽灵协议》（Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol）中开上了宝马i8——这是一款电池动力、碳纤维车身的概念车，采用了拉风之极的蝴蝶式车门。观众看到了这款i8和影片中其它光鲜亮丽的宝马轿车后，很可能会为了模仿阿汤哥而买上一台宝马。不过他们在别的方面就不必模仿了——比如试图攀爬全球第一高楼、迪拜“哈里发塔”。

    译者：朴成奎

5. Who gets frozen out when China cools off?

    GM and Volkswagen are the two biggest Western car producers in China, but German luxury brands rely on China for a higher proportion of their sales. Audi, China's luxury car leader, sells more than twice as many cars there than it does in the U.S., while BMW sells nearly as many. As the world's second-largest market for upscale cars, China could upset expansion plans for top-shelf brands if it stops growing at the rate of past years.

6. Whither Opel?

    GM, which tried to sell Opel in 2009, is now attempting another restructuring, and the job won't be easy. The European financial crisis has flattened car sales, and chronic industry overcapacity could reach 20% next year. With a market share of around 8%, Opel is not operating from a position of strength, and its blurry brand image makes it vulnerable to being steamrollered by Volkswagen. Vice-chairman Steve Girsky, an Opel supporter, has been dispatched to fix the GM unit by cutting costs and better integrating it into the automaker's global operations. As if deteriorating European economics weren't bad enough, Girsky is likely to face resistance from a wounded workforce that has been battered by past cutbacks.

7. Will the 2013 Ford Fusion be car of the year?

    Already a perennial best seller, the Fusion gets a top-to-bottom overhaul for 2013 and moves to a global platform. Ford is being tight-lipped about details prior to the car's unveiling in early January, but in addition to dramatic styling, the Fusion is expected to set new standards for fuel economy with an unprecedented array of powertrains. It could be vying with the revamped BMW 3-series for end of the year honors.

8. When will Alan Mulally retire?

    Ford's CEO could go out with the Fusion launch providing a ringing affirmation of his One Ford strategy but there are no signs the still-energetic 66-year-old will do so. With its history of unplanned management changes, Ford has little experience with peaceful transitions and seemingly has no plans to provide a Mulally successor an extended break-in period. Given Mulally's standout performance and his impact on Ford's stock price, the abrupt change could shock investors.

9. Will Tesla and Fisker become GOP punching bags for taking federal money like GM and Solyndra?

    The Obama administration lavished Energy Department loan guarantees that total more than $1 billion on the two startups for the development and production of rechargeable cars. Republicans are complaining the money was misspent. Both companies will be in launch mode this year with new models. If either one falters, the name-calling and finger-pointing will begin in earnest.

10. Will Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol give BMW a boost?

    After sprinkling its cars through four James Bond movies, BMW puts IM agent Ethan Hunt in the driver's seat for the latest installment of the action series. Star billing goes to the i8, a carbon-fiber battery-powered concept car with butterfly doors. Audiences seeing this and other models featuring the blue-and-white spinning propeller in glamorous settings are expected to imitate Tom Cruise by driving a BMW. Presumably, they won't trying to imitate Cruise in other ways -- like trying to scale the Burj Kakifa in Dubai.