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初创企业盈利挂帅对不对

初创企业盈利挂帅对不对

Mark Suster 2012-01-11
初创企业必须在盈利和成长之间作出取舍。如果不把今天的盈利投资到明天的成长上,当然可以推高利润。同理,如果要维持高速的发展,必然需要把今天的一部分利润投资到扩大再生产,谋求明天的发展壮大。

营业收入辨真伪

    但这不是光看看营收数字那么简单。以下图为例,可以看到虽然两家公司每年的营收额都一样,但由于公司1销售成本远远低于公司2,前者的毛利润率要远高于后者。

Revenue is not revenue is not revenue

    But it's not as simple as just looking at revenue in dollar terms. For example, look at the following graph. You'll notice that although both companies have the same revenue every year, Company 1 has MUCH higher gross margins than Company 2 because the cost of sales (COGS) is much lower.

"COGS"

    销售成本反映的是每笔销售产生的成本。比方说,如果是通过第三方经销商销售产品,后者抽取30%的销售佣金,那么你的销售成本将是营收的30%(假定没有其他销售成本)。

    上图事实上比较典型。公司1代表一家普通的软件公司,产品采用直销模式(由销售代表销售或直接在网上销售)。很多软件公司的毛利润率都高达85-90%,这也是为什么软件行业多年来一直热度不减。

    公司2可能代表一家“广告中介公司”,负责在出版商网站上发布广告,赚取广告网络支付的费用,再将其中的85%支付给出版商。这是典型的“中介公司”模式,通常收取销售额15-30%的佣金。

    它也可能是一家旅行网站,通过销售机票赚取佣金。

    公司都喜欢看到高额的营收数字,但这个数字可能具有误导性。试想,假如卖了5亿美元的美国联合航空公司(United Airline)机票,这可不全是你的营业收入,你的营业收入只是你获得的7,500万美元订票佣金。

    它也可能是一家电子商务网站或“秒杀”网站,记录来自客户的营业收入,但接下来必须将一大部分销售收入支付给服装生产商。许多电子商务公司事实上是中间人。毛利润率介于15-40%之间不等。

    我知道你在摇头,心里不以为然,但我敢保证,即使是我认识的一些最精明的人也会在“毛收入”和“净收入”问题上犯糊涂。我从“秒杀”网站的成长中亲眼目睹了这一点。

    人们总是说,

    “X公司的营业收入已经达到了1亿美元!哇!了不起的增长!”

    不是这么回事。

    “X公司的毛收入为1亿美元,但利润率仅为12%,这意味着大部分收入反映的是商品货值。但这些公司很多在一开始甚至都不拥有商品实物。因此,事实上X公司的营业收入是1,200万美元。”这样的营业收入额本身也很不错,但与1亿美元有本质的区别。”

    "COGS" represents the amount that each sale costs you. For example, if you sell your product through a third-party reseller who charges 30% of any sale then your COGS will be 30% of revenue (assuming no other costs of sales).

    The example chart is not actually atypical. The first company represents a normal software company that sells its products directly (either via sales staff or directly off of the internet). Many software companies have 85-90% gross margins, which is why it has historically been a very attractive industry.

    Company 2 might represent an "ad mediation company" where the company gets paid by ad networks for running ads on publisher websites and the company in turn must pay the publisher 85% of the revenue it collects. This is not atypical for "middle men" who often take 15-30% of the value of the sale.

    This could also be a travel website who gets paid a bounty for selling airline travel.

    Companies like to have high numbers in their revenue column but this can be quite misleading. After all, if you sell $500 million of United Airline tickets that isn't really YOUR revenue. Your revenue is the $75 million you got paid in booking fees.

    It could be an eCommerce website or "flash sale" where they are booking revenue from customers but then having to pay out a high percentage of the sale to the clothing manufacturer. Many eCommerce companies are in fact, middle men. Gross margins can range from 15-40%.

    I know you're shaking your head and thinking, "duh" but I promise you that even some of the most sophisticated people I know get off track on this issue of "gross revenue" versus "net revenue." I saw this first hand with the growth of the "flash sale" category.

    People kept saying,

    "Company X is already doing $100 million in revenue! Wow! Amazing growth!"

    Um, no,

    "Company X is doing $100 million in gross revenue but is only at 12% margins which means the majority of the value is in the goods. Many of these companies aren't even taking physical possession of the goods in the early days. So they are really doing $12 million in "revenue." That in and of itself is an achievement. But it's very different than $100 million in year years."

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