《财富》未来指南

    到了2022年，CEO们需要管理大量复杂的信息，从顾客和员工的微博（或是2022年的别的什么东西），到数十亿台手机、传感器以及其它设备生成的各种数据。擅于管理和发掘这些数据的企业才是能挣到大钱的企业。

    西班牙媒体公司ImpreMedia的副总裁约瑟•洛扎诺指出，忽视信息、尤其是忽视社交媒体的声音的企业，很可能会陷入危机。“不具有前瞻性的企业将在竞争中陷入被动。”

    如果说未来企业的成功将有赖于精通科技且多少有些桀骜不逊的年轻信息达人，那么美国仍将保持领袖地位。因为年轻人在西欧、日本和俄罗斯已经成了一种稀缺商品，甚至在中国也不例外，因为中国人口预计将从2020年开始进入负增长，这意味着届时将出现大量退休人口，而社会上缺乏足够的工龄人口来赡养他们。另外这些国家也存在社会动荡的危险，政府的腐败是导致动荡的导火索之一，它很可能抑制这些国家的长期经济发展。而美国的政治和经济制度则非常具有弹性。FTI的诺兰称：“诚然，美国也存在很多的挑战，但是和其它国家面临的情况相比，美国面临的挑战还是可以克服的。”

    最令预测人士感到担忧的，则是那些有能力毁城灭国，或是将国家带入战争的风险，它们深藏不露，悄然迫近。伊朗、朝鲜等所谓“流氓国家”仍会不时展示力量。令分析人士担心的还有那些不惜在大城市部署核武器或生化设备的恐怖份子。另外，有能力扳倒政府的网络袭击也是一个隐忧。

    到了2022年，企业面临的最大的安全问题当然是网络犯罪。安全性公司Mandiant的CEO凯文•曼迪亚表示，如今来自中国的黑客经常入侵美国企业的网络搜寻知识产权或贸易机密。他补充道：“我最大的担心是，中国10年内就能生产我们能够生产的所有商品，但价格只有我们的一半——因为他们偷走了我们所有的创新技术。”

    如果曼迪亚的预言成真，那么未来的创新人士必须花更大的力气，跟山寨厂商们拉开相当的距离才行。拿苹果公司、DARPA和其它企业或机构来说，他们发明的产品和服务必须相当具有吸引力，以至于没有人想去买山寨货。换句话说，他们必须发明未来。

    译者：朴成奎

    The CEO of 2022 will have to manage a complex business of far-flung inputs, from customers' and employees' tweets (or the 2022 equivalent) to all kinds of data persistently emitted from billions of phones, sensors, and other connected machines. Companies that can manage and mine all those bits and bytes stand to make a killing.

    Those who ignore information, especially voices coming over the social-media transom, do so at their peril, says Jose Lozano, vice chair of the Hispanic news company ImpreMedia: "Companies that aren't proactive will be at a competitive disadvantage."

    If the winning companies of the future will depend on young, tech-savvy, somewhat impertinent information junkies, the U.S. will still rule. Youth is a scarce commodity in Western Europe, Japan, and Russia. So, too, with China, where a population decline expected to kick in after 2020 means a surge of retirees without enough workers to support them. Nor are those countries immune from social unrest, fueled in part by government corruption that threatens to hold back long-term economic growth. America's political and economic systems, on the other hand, are remarkably resilient. "There are challenges to be sure, but in the context of what other countries are facing, ours are ones that can be met," says FTI's Nolan.

    What worries forecasters most are the black swans -- looming, below-the-surface dangers with the power to devastate nations or plunge countries into war. The bad state actors of today -- Iran, North Korea -- will still flex their muscles, but analysts also fear rogue terrorists who won't hesitate to deploy a nuclear or chemical device on a major city. Cyberattacks that bring down governments are also a worry.

    Cybercrime certainly is the biggest security issue corporations will face in 2022. Today an army of hackers in China routinely scour the networks of U.S. corporations in search of intellectual property and trade secrets, says Kevin Mandia, CEO of security firm Mandiant. He adds, "My biggest fear is that in 10 years China will be making everything we were making -- for half the price -- because they've stolen all our innovations."

    If Mandia is right, the innovators of tomorrow will have to work that much harder to stay a few steps ahead of the copycats. Like Apple (AAPL), DARPA, and others, they'll have to invent products and services that are so coveted that few will want to buy a knockoff. In other words, they'll have to invent the future.