中国楼市只会降温，不会崩盘

    而且，需求不只是来自不断壮大的中产阶层，还来自于富豪阶层。随着中国收紧购房贷款政策，很多投资者已转向国外。雷小山指出，由于中国投资者大批买入加拿大、美国加州等地住宅，世界其他一些地区也有房地产泡沫形成。

    塔夫斯大学（Tufts University）下属全球商学院（Institute for Business in the Global Context）的常务主任巴思卡•查克勒佛提称，即使中国房价大跌20%，也不太可能引发灾难，毕竟过去房价涨得太快了。房价下跌将为那些一年前、甚至几个月前还买不起房的人们提供了买入的机会（想想中国人数多达约3亿的中产阶层）。

    “从根本上讲，这是一个很有深度的市场，”查克勒佛提近日在纽约出席彭博中国研讨会Bloomberg Link China并在中国房地产市场小组讨论上发言后表示。

中国政府不会让楼市崩盘

    中国中央政府向来善于对经济进行适时的微调。政府察觉到房价上涨过快后已经收紧了贷款政策。因此，我们看到的房价下跌正是政府所乐于见到的，是中国政府楼市调控方案的一部分，目的是为楼市降温，让更多中国人买得起房。

    但摩根大通指出，问题是随着楼市投资放缓，中国官员的楼市调控政策还会持续多久？该行预计未来一年半，中国全国房价可能下跌5%至10%；过去房价上涨过快的地区（该行指出，2007-2010年间，中国35个大城市的平均房价涨了82%），预计房价下跌幅度将高达20%。

    “这可能会减缓中国经济增速，但不会导致硬着陆，”摩根大通分析师们表示。

    摩根大通去年11月的报告指出，如果要从全局来看中国的房价泡沫问题，需要指出的是，中国主要城市的房价增速显著快于国内其他地区，这一点很重要。而且，大城市在全国房地产市场所占的份额相对较小。举例来说，2011年大部分时候，北京、上海和广东的房地产投资总额只占到全国的16%，房地产销售额占比达到20%，销售面积占比也只有10%。

    因此，在地区房价引发全国楼市崩盘之前，中国政府有足够的时间来调整政策。

    The demand, however, isn't just coming from the growing middle class but also the very rich. With tighter lending rules placed on Chinese buyers at home, many investors have gone abroad. Rein points to the formation of property bubbles in other parts of the world, as Chinese investors buy up homes in places such as Canada and California.

    Even if home prices fall by 20% in China, it's unlikely that would spell disaster given that prices had surged so rapidly, says Bhaskar Chakravorti, executive director of Tufts University's Institute for Business in the Global Context. Lower prices would offer an opening to those who couldn't afford to buy a year or a few months ago (think about the 300 million middle class Chinese).

    "Fundamentally, it's a deep market," says Chakravorti, after speaking recently on a panel about China's property market at the Bloomberg Link China conference in New York City.

The government won't let prices crash

    China's central government has been known to tweak its economy as it goes. When officials saw property prices rising too rapidly for its tastes, it tightened lending rules. So the declines we have seen are welcome and are part of the government's plans to cool down its hot real estate market, making it more affordable for more Chinese to buy property.

    The tricky part is in knowing how long officials adjust housing policies as the real estate market slows, according to JP Morgan. The bank adds that over the next year and a half, prices could fall 5% to 10% at the national level. At the regional level, where prices have risen much more rapidly ((it notes prices surged an average of 82% between 2007 to 2010 in 35 major Chinese cities), prices are expected to fall by 20%.

    "This will likely slow the pace of economic growth but not lead to a hard landing," say JP Morgan's analysts.

    To put China's property bubble in context, it's important to note that prices in major cities have risen much faster than the rest of the country, according to JP Morgan's November report. And major cities make up a relatively small portion of the national housing market. For instance, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong's markets combined account for 16% of total real estate investment, 20% of the buildings sold (in value), and 10% of the floor space sold for the majority of 2011.

    So before home prices at the regional level trigger a national market crash, the Chinese government should have enough time to change its game.