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迪士尼应该果断出售美国广播公司

迪士尼应该果断出售美国广播公司

Cyrus Sanati 2012-02-10
美国广播公司已经成为一个包袱,但迪士尼不仅没有寻求分拆以减少损失的计划,据称反而还打算加码投资,联手西班牙传媒巨头Univision推出新的有线新闻电视网。这一切让人看不懂。

    这个方案似乎是一项定位错误的冒失之举。其他所有的24小时有线新闻电视网都根据意识形态划分:新闻集团(News Corp)的福克斯新闻网(Fox News)瞄准保守人士,时代华纳(Time Warner)的有线电视新闻网(CNN)面向温和派,而康卡斯特(Comcast)和微软的MSNBC迎合自由主义者【《财富》(Fortune)杂志隶属于时代华纳】。搞不懂为什么说英语的西班牙裔美国人要关心祖父故土上的大选,为什么要关心美国其他地区西班牙裔的现状。

    迪士尼首席执行官鲍勃•伊格尔曾在一次股东电话会议上被问到传言的Univision交易,当时,他拒绝置评。“我过去也说过,美国广播公司是一个平台,我们将继续从内容角度进行投资,而新闻网是这个平台中很重要的一部分,”他说。“而且,我们希望看到新闻网取得成功,给它机会,自行寻找、创造发展的机遇。”

    如今的美国广播公司新闻网已徒有其表,随着越来越多的美国人通过互联网等其他渠道获取新闻,它的收视率大幅下降。新闻网的高管们上下求索,希望能向其注入“新的活力”。不幸的是,他们的解决之道只是迎合低级趣味,以吸引更多观众。因此,“色情片男星取悦女性之道”这样的报道更可能成为美国广播公司旗舰新闻栏目《夜线》(Nightline)的头条,而不是“无聊的”严肃新闻话题。看来美国广播公司新闻网快玩完了。

    迪士尼如果聪明,就该趁早了断。来自美国广播公司的协同效应(如果还有的话)极少,随着收视率持续下降,预计未来美国广播公司的广告收入还将继续下降。努力降低成本,继续制作人们喜闻乐见的优秀节目,这两点ABC娱乐和ABC 新闻的高管们忙了十年也没有做到,没理由相信他们未来就一定能做好。

    老牌电视网不可能重新获得过去那样的收视率,如今消费者有太多的信息和娱乐选择。如果迪士尼找不到买家,它总是能以免税分拆的方式将美国广播公司剥离给它的股东们。这样,股东们就有机会决定是想继续把它留在资产组合中,还是将它坚决抛弃。如果估值适当,美国广播公司依然值得持有。但目前,它似乎拉低了迪士尼的估值,妨碍了股东们实现强劲利润的梦想。

    That seems like a risky bet built on a false premise. All the other 24-hour cable news networks are divided across the ideological spectrum, with News Corp's (NWS) Fox News catering to conservatives, Time Warner's CNN catering to moderates and Comcast and Microsoft's MSNBC appealing to liberals (Fortune is owned by Time Warner (TWX)). It is unclear why a Hispanic-American, who speaks English, would care about elections back in their grandparent's homeland or about other Hispanic-Americans in other parts of the country.

    When asked about the reported Univision deal, Disney CEO Bob Iger declined to comment during a call with shareholders. "I've said before that ABC is a platform that we continue to invest in from a content perspective, and ABC News is a very important part of that platform," he said. "And we have an interest in seeing that ABC News continues to flourish and giving it an opportunity to look for and create some growth opportunities on its own."

    ABC News is but a shell of what it used to be and its ratings have plummeted as more Americans get their news from other mediums, like the internet. Executives inside ABC News are being shuffled around in an attempt to breathe "new life" into the news division. The answer, unfortunately, has been to appeal to the lowest common denominator in a cheap attempt to lure in viewers. So stories like "how male porn stars are trying to cater to women," are more likely to lead the network's iconic news daily Nightline than a hard news topic considered "boring." The end seems near.

    Disney would be smart to just cut the cord before it is too late. It derives very little, if any, synergies from ABC and ad revenue is expected to fall going forward as viewership continues to drop off. Attempts to cut costs while maintaining quality programming that people want to watch has eluded ABC entertainment and ABC News executives for a decade, and there is no reason to believe that they will ever get it right.

    The old mainline broadcast giants simply cannot capture the viewership they once could due to the plethora of information and entertainment choices now available to consumers. If Disney cannot find a buyer, it could always spinoff ABC to its shareholders in a tax-free spinoff. That would give shareholders the opportunity to decide whether they want to keep ABC as part of their portfolios or dump it. At the right valuation, ABC could be worth owning. But for now, it seems to be dragging Disney's valuation down - preventing shareholders from having their dreams of strong profits come true.

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