花旗海外扩张寄望中国

    花旗相信公司的未来显然是在亚洲和拉美，并且似乎已准备好为此投入大笔资金。去年，它斥资约6亿美元投资海外业务，主要是在亚洲，用于帮助开设新的分支机构，招聘新员工。潘迪特在北京表示，虽然花旗正在美国裁员，但在亚洲正在扩招员工，特别是在中国。

    花旗进入中国市场已有若干年的历史，一直与政府保持着亲密友好的关系。它在中国13个大城市设有分行和46家个人银行网点。在中国，银行分支机构非常重要，它是个人获取信用卡的唯一渠道。2003年以来，花旗一直与一家中国国内银行合作发行信用卡。

    但花旗不断扩张的银行网络在中国整个个人银行市场上占比仍然较小。外资银行在中国银行市场的占有率仅为1.8%，花旗取得的是这其中更小的一部分。过去五年，中国流通的信用卡数量猛增长了五倍，达到了2.70亿张。中国国内大银行占据了大部分市场，但似乎依然存在更大的市场可供开拓。万事达（MasterCard）估计，到2025年中国流通的信用卡数量将达到11亿张，信用卡消费额将达到2.5万亿美元。鉴于中国庞大的人口规模和日益增长的个人收入，这样的数字听起来并不夸张。

    中国人向来注重身份，花旗获批发行自己的信用卡将提高它在中国人中的品牌认知度，特别是那些受过良好教育的、富裕的城市消费者，而这部分人正是花旗瞄准的目标。只要能在这个市场中分得一小杯羹，就能带来丰厚的回报。

    但如果中国经济高台跳水，银行体系触礁，情形又会如何？潘迪特在12月份的分析师会议上这样说：

    毫无疑问，新兴市场地区会出现周期。总是会存在“增长过快或过慢”的问题。不过，如果观察趋势，长期的变化是真真切切的。因此，如果认为他们会达到6%的经济增速，他们可能做不到。就算他们的增速只有美联储压力测试采用的4%或5%，那又怎样？说到底，他们是在增长。因此，我想我们已做好了准备，我们可以抓住这个机遇。

    因此，即便增长率没有那么亮丽，中国的经济增速必定还是会快于美国和欧洲。进入中国市场，不管我们的市场占有率多低，总的效果还是积极的。

    当然，如果经济触底，人们失业，信贷增速可能很快就会掉头向下。眼下，人们认为中国楼市已经出现类似几年美国出现过的泡沫，甚至更严重。与此同时，欧洲经济的放缓也对中国出口造成了冲击。中国人习惯在买大件商品时全部用现金支付，但这种情况正在发生改变，因为后毛泽东时期的年轻一代更习惯于贷款消费以及使用银行卡。房价下跌可能迅速扩散至消费者信用卡领域，对花旗的净利润构成双重打击。

    目前尚不清楚中国政府会容忍花旗在中国做到多大。中国政府一直对金融业严加监管，力挺国有银行的发展。但即便只是在这个迅速膨胀的市场中分得一小杯羹，对花旗也意义非凡。如果中国政府继续限制其他外资银行进入这个市场的话，那就更是如此了。

    译者：zdm

    Citi believes that its future clearly lies in Asia and Latin America and seems prepared to put in the investment dollars to get it done. It spent around $600 million investing in its operations abroad last year, with the bulk centered in Asia. That helped the bank open new branches and hire new workers. In Beijing, Pandit said that while the bank was paring down its workforce in the U.S., it was ramping up hiring in Asia, especially China.

    Citi has been in China for a while and maintains close and cordial relations with the government. It has new branches in 13 major Chinese cities along with 46 consumer outlets. The bank branch is very important in China, as it's the only place where a person can obtain a credit card. Since 2003, Citi has issued a credit card in cooperation with a local Chinese partner.

    But Citi's expanded physical presence is still but a small fraction of the total Chinese consumer banking market. Foreign banks hold just 1.8% of the market, with Citi a small sliver of that. The number of credit cards in circulation in China has exploded to 270 million, up five fold since in the last five years. The big Chinese banks have gotten most of that business, but there seems to be a lot more market to share. MasterCard (MA) estimates that China will have 1.1 billion credit cards in circulation by 2025, with spending on those cards estimated to reach $2.5 trillion. Based on China's population and rising personal incomes, that number sounds modest.

    Allowing Citi to market its own card will raise its brand recognition among the status-driven Chinese, especially the urban, educated and rich consumers that Citi wants to target. Tapping just a fraction of that market could be very lucrative.

    But what if the Chinese economy falls off a cliff and the banking system runs aground? Pandit said this at an analyst meeting in December:

    There's no question that there are likely to be cycles in the emerging market areas. There are always questions of moving a little too fast, moving a little too slow. Having said that, when you look at the underlying trends, the secular change is real. And so if you think they're going to grow at 6%, well, maybe they don't. If they grow at the Fed's stress test of 4% or 5%, so what? At the end of the day, that's where the growth is, and so I think we're pretty well positioned to capture that.

    So even if the growth rate isn't stellar, it is bound to be better in China than in the U.S. or Europe. Having a toe in the Chinese market, however small, will be a net positive.

    Of course, growth in credit can end up reversing really fast if the economy tanks and people lose their jobs. The Chinese real estate market is thought to be in a bubble similar or worse than what the U.S. was in a few years ago. Meanwhile, a slowdown in Europe has taken a toll on China's export market. The Chinese tend to spend all cash on large items, but that's changing as the younger, post-Mao generations grow more comfortable with the idea of taking out loans and using plastic. A crash in housing could quickly spread to consumer credit cards, delivering a one-two punch to Citi's bottom line.

    It is unclear how big Citi will be allowed to get in China. The government keeps close tabs on the financial sector and holds up its national champions. But even a small sliver of this explosive market could mean a lot for Citi, especially if the government keeps other foreign players out of the market.