伯南克的腼腆拖累了美国经济复苏吗？

    假如美联储主席本•伯南克能有几分“毒舌”评委西蒙•考威尔的张扬，美国经济的状况会不会比现在好一些？美国国家经济研究局（National Bureau of Economic Research）本周发布的一份新报告似乎就是这种观点。

    这份报告名为《伯南克和零利率》（Bernanke and the Zero Bound），由约翰霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University）经济学教授劳伦斯•巴尔撰写。报告质问美联储（Federal Reserve）为什么没有采取更激进的政策措施来提振美国经济。巴尔分析了很多可能性，包括政治压力以及我们尚未真正陷入通缩的事实。最后，巴尔得出了自己的结论：原因在于伯南克个性腼腆。

    美联储未出台第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3），难道真的是因为伯南克的个性？伯南克在加盟美联储之前曾写了大量文章，建议美联储在短期利率（就像现在这样）接近于零的时候应当如何复苏经济。实际上，他曾被认为是这方面的专家。巴尔说，伯南克一贯主张采取一些激进措施，如将美元大幅贬值、调高通货膨胀率目标和所谓的“货币融资”（money-financed）减税，即美联储“印刷”更多的纸币，以便民众可少交点税，这往往被认为不会增加通胀。巴尔提到了伯南克2000年的一场演讲，当时他曾责怪日本央行未做更多努力来提振日本经济。

    但是，伯南克作为现任美联储主席同样没有尝试过这类举措。比如，美联储在最近一次会议上采纳了2%的温和通胀目标，而非哈佛大学（Harvard）的肯•罗格夫等经济学家建议的4%或更高水平。这是怎么回事？巴尔说他也不知道，但他认为这可能和伯南克的腼腆有关。2003年年中，短期利率降至1%，美联储委员们也在讨论，他们还能采取什么行动来刺激经济增长。大部分人反对采用很多伯南克过去的政策措施。看来伯南克的观念已迅速同其他委员形成了一致。

    摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席美国经济学家文森•赖因哈特不同意巴尔的观点。赖因哈特在00年代中期曾担任美联储首席经济学家，巴尔认为，伯南克观念的转变一部分原因就在于赖因哈特。但赖因哈特称，伯南克的改变更大程度上是因为他认识到了经济学家的头脑风暴和真正担任央行行长后的现实可能性之间的差异，这些远远超过了他对伯南克的任何影响。“一个腼腆的人会在金融危机期间推行所有这些特殊举措吗？”赖因哈反问。“现在，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）很多委员甚至都在质疑伯南克是不是过于激进了。”

    确实，我们听到的对伯南克最多的指责就是他刺激通胀可能过了头，而不是做的太少了。伯南克和美联储最近的态度认为，美国经济仍然比表面看上去更疲弱。这种观点进一步激起一些经济学家和共和党人的愤怒。另外，伯南克是第一位定期召开新闻发布会的美联储主席，一个腼腆的人绝对不会这么干。但巴尔仍认为，伯南克在担任美联储主席前后，对经济刺激政策的态度判若两人，实属不该。

    “我觉得爱因斯坦如果去参加一个物理学讲座，不会一面说它不知所云，一面又表示认同，”巴尔说。“但伯南克的情况基本上就是这样。”

    Would we all be better off if Ben Bernanke were more like Simon Cowell? A new paper published this week by the National Bureau of Economic Research seems to suggest so.

    The paper by economics professor Laurence Ball of Johns Hopkins University, which is titled Bernanke and the Zero Bound, asks why the Federal Reserve hasn't been more aggressive in trying to revive the economy. Ball goes through a number of possibilities, including political pressure and the fact we haven't actually had deflation. In the end Ball lands on this one: Bernanke's a shy guy.

    Can you really blame a lack of QE3 on personality? Before Bernanke joined the Fed he wrote extensively on what the Fed should do to revive the economy when, as is the case now, short-term interest rates are at near zero. In fact, he was considered an expert on the subject. Ball says Bernanke consistently advocated such drastic measures as an aggressive depreciation of the dollar, raising inflation targets and so-called money-financed tax cuts, where the Fed "prints" money so that the rest of us can pay less to the government, which is generally considered an inflation no-no. Ball cites one speech in 2000 in particular where Bernanke takes Japan's central bankers to task for not doing more to revive their nation's economy.

    Yet, Bernanke as actual chairman hasn't tried any of these. The Fed, for instance, at its most recent meeting adopted a mild 2% inflation target, instead of the 4% or more that some economists like Harvard's Ken Rogoff have suggested. So what happened? Ball says he doesn't know, but he thinks Bernanke's shyness may have played a role. In mid-2003, when short-term interest rates were cut to 1%, members of the Federal Reserve debated what else they could do to stimulate the economy. The majority argued against using many of the policy measures that Bernanke had earlier backed. Bernanke's views appear to have quickly conformed to the rest of the group.

    Vincent Reinhart, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, disagrees. He was a top economist at the Fed in the mid-2000s, and Ball, in part, credits Reinhart with changing Bernanke's views. But Reinhart says the change in Bernanke is more a factor of what you brainstorm about as an economist and what you realize is really possible as a true central banker, than any influence he had on Bernanke. "Would a shy person put in place all the collection of special facilities during the financial crisis," says Reinhart. "There are a number of members of the FOMC who would question right now whether Bernanke has been too aggressive."

    Indeed, Bernanke's most vocal critics have often wondered whether he has done too much to stoke inflation, not too little. And Bernanke and the Fed's recent stance that the economy remains weaker than it appears has only invited more ire from some economists and Republicans. What's more, Bernanke is the first Fed chairman to hold regular press conferences, not something you would expect a shy person to do. Still, Ball thinks Bernanke about-face on policy measures to revive the economy is significant, and in Ball's view unfortunate.

    "I don't think Albert Einstein would have gone to a lecture on physics that said he didn't know what he was talking about and then agree with it," says Ball. "But in Bernanke's case that's essentially what happened."