5大改革有望重塑希腊经济

    当前，希腊的失业率已高达21%。过高的工资已迫使许多公司给员工发现金工资，不走账面，以逃避社保税。让人难以相信的是，即便如此，希腊本来还计划于7月份将全国范围内的工资再次上调2.5%。本月，希腊政府终于做出了迄今为止最果断的决定，取消了这次涨薪计划，批准将大多数工人的最低工资下调22%，24岁以下员工的最低工资下调32%。

    这一调整应该会对各个级别的工资产生向下的连带效应。“希腊终于打破了（工资的）螺旋上升趋势，”Alpha Bank驻雅典的经济学家迈克•马索拉基斯表示。“它应该能大幅提高劳动力市场的效率。”事实上，新的法律严格限定员工们在公司层面进行工资协商，而不是在公司还没有和员工协商时，一开始就设定大幅的工资上调。问题是：新机制的有效期仅为三年。2015年希腊可能恢复旧机制，这样的前景降低了这一改革的历史意义。

    总而言之，这些改革遭到了民众的普遍地址，希腊显然是迫于外界的重压，才开始实行改革。它原本有可能不愿继续承受留在欧元区内的痛苦，真的会选择退出欧元的道路。但在挣扎了两年后，它终于采取了正确的行动。然而，希腊的悲剧在于，一切可能已经为时过晚。

    译者：zdm

    Today, unemployment in Greece stands at 21%. Wages are still so high that many employers pay workers cash, off the books, to avoid social security taxes. Incredibly, a raise of 2.5% was scheduled for July at the national level. But this month, in its most decisive move to date, the government dismantled the pay elevator. It passed a 22% decrease in the minimum wage for most workers, and a 32% drop from employees under the age of 24.

    The change should produce a reverse ripple effect lowering salaries at all levels. "Greece is finally breaking the spiral," says Michael Massourakis, an economist at Alpha Bank in Athens. "This could make labor markets far more efficient." In effect, the new law allows employers to negotiate strictly at the company level, instead of starting with a big, mandated wage increase before they even start talking to their own workers. The rub: The new system applies for three years. The possibility that Greece will return to the old system in 2015 dampens the significance of this historic reform.

    In conclusion, it's clear that Greece is only embracing these widely reviled reforms under intense pressure. It may indeed choose the route of exiting the euro over the pain of staying the course. But after two years of fiddling, it's finally making the right moves. The Greek tragedy is that it may be too late.