摩根大通为何沦为华尔街“差生”

    杰米•戴蒙可能需要做些什么来证明自己依然是位出色的银行家。金融危机之后，投资者争相购入摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的股票，看中的就是戴蒙的杰出表现，他成功地带领摩根大通避开了美国楼市泡沫破裂造成的最严重冲击。但过去几个月，摩根大通和它的这位首席执行官似乎都失去了光彩。

    今年以来，美国各大银行的股价均呈现回升，但摩根大通的反弹幅度低于大多数银行。1月1日迄今，摩根大通股票仅上涨了15%。相比之下，花旗集团（Citigroup）涨了23%，高盛（Goldman）涨28%，美国银行（Bank of America）更是飙升42%。更糟的是，摩根大通股票的估值也低于很多竞争对手——虽然业界一度认为它们的状况比摩根大通糟糕得多。实际上，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的一位分析师称，假如这几年摩根大通经历了分崩离析的过程，任其自生自灭，假如这个过程中戴蒙被扫地出门，可能摩根大通如今的股价反而会涨到48美元，比当前38.72美元的股价还要高24%。天哪。

    周二在摩根大通的年度股东大会上，戴蒙还有机会赢得股东的支持。但如今要证明摩根大通的股票估值应高于竞争对手，可比过去难多了。

    部分原因在于戴蒙。戴蒙是成功预测次贷损失并采取行动避免了相关损失的少数银行首席执行官之一。但最近一年左右，越来越明确的一点是，戴蒙干得并没有之前想象的那么漂亮。近期多家美国大银行就“自动签名”（robo-signing，贷款服务商在未审查相关文件的情况下便签字——译注）同49个州的总检察长达成和解，赔偿250亿美元，摩根大通需承担53亿美元。虽然没像美国银行（近120亿美元）那么多，但还是达到了花旗集团（22亿美元）的两倍还多。另外，摩根大通未来还将出现更多的按揭贷款损失。摩根大通止赎的按揭贷款比例略高于14%，这些贷款不是已停止还款，就是还款已逾期90天 。据上述摩根士丹利的分析师称，这一比例高于其他大银行，后者的不良住房贷款比例平均为12%。

    而且，在很多人认为很可能触发下一次金融危机的欧洲，摩根大通似乎没有像次级危机前那样积极抽身。根据里昂证券(CLSA)银行业分析师、近期撰写了《流亡华尔街》（Exile on Wall Street）一书的迈克•梅奥统计，摩根大通在债务违约风险看来最高的希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙的净敞口高达160亿美元。

    Jamie Dimon may need to do something to prove he still deserves a premium. In the wake of the financial crisis, investors paid up for JPMorgan Chase's (JPM) shares because Dimon had done a remarkably good job of steering his bank clear of the worst of the housing bust. But in the past few months, JPMorgan and its CEO seem to have lost their luster.

    While shares of all of the big banks have rallied this year, JPMorgan's are up less than most. The stock of Dimon's bank has risen 15% since Jan. 1. That compares to 23% for Citigroup (C), 28% for Goldman (GS) and 42% for Bank of America (BAC). Worse, JPMorgan's shares now get a lower valuation than many rivals - even those that were once seen as much weaker. In fact, were JPMorgan broken up and left for dead, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, presumably booting Dimon in the process, the bank's shares could potentially rise to $48, up 24% from its current price of $38.72. Ouch.

    Dimon will get another shot to win over investors on Tuesday, when JPMorgan holds its annual meeting with shareholders. But arguing JPMorgan should be more highly valued than its rivals is harder than it used to be.

    Part of the reason has to do with Dimon, who was famously one of the few bank CEOs to foresee losses in subprime mortgages and made moves to avoid them. But in the past year or so, it has become clear that Dimon wasn't as successful as was thought. JPMorgan's portion of the recent $25 billion 'robo-signing' settlement with 49 state attorneys general was $5.3 billion. Not as much as Bank of America, which has to pay out to states and borrowers nearly $12 billion, but more than double Citigroup's penalty, which was $2.2 billion. What's more, JPMorgan has more mortgage losses coming. Just over 14% of JPMorgan's mortgages have either been foreclosed upon, are no-longer paying or are 90 days past due. That's higher than at other big banks, where distressed home loans average 12%, according to the Morgan Stanley analysts.

    And unlike subprime mortgages, JPMorgan doesn't seem as aggressive in trying to sidestep what many people see as the likeliest cause of the next financial crisis: Europe. According to Mike Mayo, banking analyst at CLSA and author of the recent book Exile on Wall Street, JPMorgan has $16 billion in net exposure to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain - the countries seen as the most likely to default.