摩根大通为何沦为华尔街“差生”

    此外，增长也是个问题。而且，这不是因为不努力。过去一年，摩根大通新增了216个分支机构，4,000名零售银行家和销售专员，并扩大了企业贷款和投资银行业务。但摩根大通的营收仍在下降，而不是上升——仅第四季度就下降了18%。而且，摩根大通依然保持着华尔街大行中规模最大的衍生品业务。监管的收紧以及银行信用评级下调可能会使这块业务的盈利能力下降。梅奥说，摩根大通的衍生品营收可能减少10亿美元。

    但摩根大通最大的问题可能是戴蒙对该行过于自信。去年，戴蒙称，国际资本金条例提案将迫使他的银行比一些竞争对手持有更多资本金，是一份“反美国的”提案。事实上，迄今为止，戴蒙并没像其他银行那样紧急增加资本金。而且，戴蒙说他也不会像其他银行一样，将资本金提高到高于新规要求的水平。目前，摩根大通的有形资本金比率低于花旗集团和美国银行。戴蒙看来对此毫不在意。摩根大通早就证明了它一向善于管理和保护资本金方面。是的，但那是三年前。如今，在大多数投资者看来，摩根大通与其他大银行没什么两样，甚至都不是其中最受青睐的一家。

    Growth has been an issue as well. And it's not for not trying. In the past year, JPMorgan has added 216 new branches and 4,000 retail bankers and sales specialists. It has also expanded its corporate lending and investment bank. Nonetheless, JPMorgan's revenue has been dropping, not rising -- down 18% in the fourth quarter alone. And JPMorgan still maintains the largest derivatives books among the big banks. Tighter regulations and lower debt ratings for the banks will probably make that business less profitable. Mayo says JPMorgan's derivatives revenue could drop by $1 billion.

    But JPMorgan's biggest problem might be Dimon's own inflated image of his bank. Last year, Dimon called proposed international capital rules that would force his bank to hold more capital than some of his rivals as "anti-American." In fact, Dimon hasn't rushed to raise capital like other banks. And Dimon says he won't raise excess capital above new rules, as other banks have. JPMorgan now maintains a lower tangible capital ratio than Citigroup or Bank of America. And that appears to be fine with Dimon. His bank proved it was better at managing and protecting its capital. Yes, but that was three years ago. These days, JPMorgan looks like just another large bank to most investors, and not even the most loved one.