电视广告不死

    尽管数字化广告具有光明的发展前景，但很多负责广告业务的高管依然坚信，对受众吸引力最强的方式还是30秒电视广告，比如今年克莱斯勒公司（Chrysler）在超级碗（Super Bowl）比赛期间播出的广告。广告中，克林特•伊斯特伍德穿行于黑夜的暗影中，剖白战胜艰辛的心路历程，令人热血沸腾。一幅幅美国工业社会的生活场景如同精心制作的卡片一样，依次展现在电视荧屏上。网络广告怎么比？

    有些广播电视网认为自己找到了进一步提高电视广告效果的良方。想象一下，比如乔•史密斯需要买一辆新车，他突然想支持一下美国货，于是他按下遥控器上的按钮，立刻就接收到了福特汽车（Ford） F150车型的各项信息，甚至包括购买地点。稍后，乔的妻子萨利看到了最新的索尼手机广告。屏幕上的手机看起来造型优美且时尚，让萨利很是心动。她只需按下按钮就能马上拥有自己喜欢的手机。广告业内人士称，这正是广告业者长期以来的终极追求。

    互动式电视广告不仅能让广告客户准确定位观众，还能让观众随时购买他们看到的产品。过去十多年来，这种广告一直传得天花乱坠。但最近，这种设想获得了切实的动力。电视广告收入在2009～2010年期间持续下滑，广播电视业者担心，30秒电视广告将逐渐被后来居上的数字化广告所取代。数码摄影机的出现更加深了他们的忧虑：以前被动观看广告的受众现在可以选择跳过广告片。

    然而，曾经在开发互动式电视广告方面很有发展前途独木舟创业公司（Canoe Ventures）却于上周宣布了停业的决定。该公司原来的经营理念很有意思：2008年，包括康卡斯特有线电视公司（Comcast）和时代华纳有线电视公司（Time Warner Cable）在内的六家竞争性有线网络，合作开发互动式电视广告并通过机顶盒进行播放。然而不久之后，他们的业务就遭遇了金融危机的沉重打击，广告收入全线下跌，最后这六家公司发现，这样的合作难以为继，市场对这一理念的接受度也不够高。只有2,500万户家庭安装了这种能接收互动式广告的机顶盒，对很多大众品牌来说，因为受众群体太小，这项技术并不值得投资。

    幸运的是，关于电视即将退出历史舞台的说法也逐渐式微，这对电视网络公司来说无疑是个好消息。美国电视观众数量不断增长。虽然人们也花时间上网，但电视仍然是美国人闲暇时最重要的休闲活动。据美国国家广告协会（ANA）和弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）所做的一项联合调查显示，过去两年内，在接受调查的一百名广告业高管中，认为电视广告将更为有效的人数比例翻了三番。该调查还预测，今年电视广告费用预算将占媒体投入总预算的47%，比2010年增加了6%。美国国家广告协会数据显示，数字化广告预算将占到全部广告预算的14%。

    电视广告投入回升的原因之一，很可能是因为网络广告的效果难以衡量。人们可以通过各种不同媒介看到广告，比如电脑、iPad和安卓（Android）手机，广告客户很难确定哪种广告投放途径最为有效，以及最终广告受众是谁。一位广告业高管表示：“相比难以捉摸的数字化世界，电视广告效果更容易衡量。”虽然数字化广告能够提供精确的点击量数据，但是它提供的人口统计学信息仍然无法与电视相比。

    Despite the promise of digital advertising, many ad execs still believe that the best way to captivate an audience is the 30-second television spot. Take, for instance, Chrysler's Super Bowl ad this year. Clint Eastwood walks amidst the shadows, delivering a dramatic monologue about triumphing in hard times. Industrial scenes of American life fold down like beautifully crafted playing cards, one after another, on the screen. How can a banner ad compete with that?

    Some networks think they've found an answer: taking the 30-second spot a step further. Imagine if Joe Smith, in need of a new car and suddenly feeling patriotic, presses a button on his remote and instantly receives more information about a Ford F150 (F), including where he can buy one. Meanwhile, Joe's wife, Sally, watches a later ad for a Sony phone. The product on the screen is sleek and modern, and Sally wants it. She can turn her emotion into ownership, purchasing the phone with the click of a button. This, according to industry insiders, is the holy grail of advertising.

    Interactive television advertising (ITV), which allows advertisers not only to target an audience but also to allow a viewer to buy what he or she sees, has been touted for over a decade. But more recently, the idea has gained traction. With TV ad revenues falling in 2009 and 2010, networks feared that growth in the digital industry was slowly displacing the 30-second TV ad. The advent of the digital video recorder prompted further worries that a formerly captive audience could now skip commercials altogether.

    Yet Canoe Ventures, one of the more promising attempts at developing ITV, shut its doors last week. The firm had an interesting idea: six competing cable networks, including Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC), joined forces in 2008 to see if they could develop interactive TV commercials, delivered through a set-top box. The financial crisis quickly dented their plans, depressing ad revenues across the board and, over time the six competing companies found it increasingly difficult to collaborate. The market really ever caught on to the idea, either. Only 25 million homes installed the set-top box to receive an interactive ad—too small a penetration for many mass-market brands to invest in the technology.

    Luckily for the networks, the narrative about the death of TV now seems to be dying itself. TV viewership is growing, and television remains the single most important leisure time activity in the United States, despite the time Americans now spend online. According to a joint ANA-Forrester Research survey, the number of 100 advertising executives polled who believe TV ads have become more effective in the past two years has tripled. The survey predicts that TV ad spending will account for 47% of media budgets this year, a 6% increase since 2010. By comparison, according to the ANA, 14% of advertising budgets will be spent on digital ads.

    One of the reasons TV ad spending is back in favor may well be confusion about the impact of Internet ads. "TV is still much easier to measure than the elusive digit world," says one advertising executive. People view advertising on so many different devices—a computer, an iPad, an Android—that advertisers have difficulty understanding whether their ad is being delivered in the most effective way, or who's watching it. Digital ads provide accurate click-through data, but in terms of demographic information they still don't compare to television.