零售业生死之辩

    随着科技的不断发展，根据消费者之前的购物经历和兴趣所在，以及消费者行为的可追溯性，如今的零售商很容易便能确定消费者未来的需求。将来（甚至现在已经实现），商家将研究消费者的一言一行，从中寻找销售机会。或许，我们在走亲访友的时候，手机便会收到潮水般的折扣和优惠信息。手机（或其他移动设备）将能判断主人何时口渴，并通过导航将主人带到有机冰沙的销售摊位。

    或许用不了多久，人们就会在电视上看到一位女演员，脚上穿的鞋看起来就像为自己量身定做的一般。而且，消费者再也不必耐着性子上网，或者去实体商店（但愿这种事情不要发生），只需要对着屏幕晃动手机就可以立即买下这双鞋。而有趣地是，你的邻居这时也正家中收看同一档节目，但不同的是，她看到的却是另外一款最适合她的鞋子。

告别实体商店为时尚早

    未来并不会完全像动画片《摩登家庭》所描述的那样，到处都是冷冰冰的机械和机器人，以及海量的数据。实体店仍不可或缺。人类会继续繁衍生息，但技术的变化也必然会给我们带来影响。例如，汽车修理商已经开始为客户安装视频链接，使客户能够对发动机的使用情况进行监控（有关此项服务内容详情，可通过Google搜索“trust car mechanics”查询）。

    实体店提供的服务是在线购物所难以企及的——比如实体店可以提供实实在在的衣服供消费者试穿。西班牙Diesel品牌已经开始提供带有Facebook链接的试衣间，消费者可以拿着自己试穿的形象在朋友之间进行调查。比如，在在线试衣网站gotryiton，消费者可以就自己相中的衣服向社交群体征求意见。

    店内社区的作用也日益明显，因为零售商店可以通过培养真正的社区，建立消费者忠诚度、信任度，从而促进销售。而且，店内社区不必通过在线工具才能实现。比如多次获得环法自行车赛冠军的兰斯•阿姆斯特朗，在自己的家乡德克萨斯州奥斯丁市开办了一家名为Mellow Johnny's的自行车店，商店为骑乘自行车上下班的人提供免费淋浴和免费课程，甚至还设有咖啡厅，骑车一族在参加商店组织的团体自行车骑行之前，可以先在这里补充能量。而在另外一些商店，社区成员甚至已经成为决定商店生产和销售产品的关键要素。比如英国家具零售商Made便由消费者在线投票来决定商店应该生产哪个款式的家具。这种方式彻底颠覆了传统的自上而下、设计师至消费者的模式，代表了一种全新零售结构的兴起。

    Given the way technology moves, it's easy now for retailers to target us with specific goods that we will want as we move through our lives, based on our previous purchases and our interests, and the fact that our behavior is often traceable. In the future -- and sometimes even now -- our every step will be studied for opportunities to sell, and offers and coupons will flood our phones as we wander from neighborhood to neighborhood. The phone (or whatever device replaces it) will know when you are thirsty, and guide you towards an organic smoothie cart.

    Soon, an actress may appear on your TV screen wearing a great pair of shoes that seem perfect for you. Rather than waiting patiently to go online or, God forbid, visit an actual store, you'll be able to wave your phone at the screen and buy the shoes instantly. Curiously, your neighbor, watching the same show in her own apartment, will see a different pair of shoes that suit her perfectly

Farewell physical store? Not so fast.

    But the future does not belong entirely to a Jetsons world of machines and robots and data aggregation. Stores will still matter. People will still exist. But we'll all be affected by these changes. For instance, car mechanics are already starting to install video links so customers can monitor what they are doing to their engines (Google "trust car mechanics" if you want to know why.).

    Stores offer things that the online experience just can't match -- like actual clothes to try on. In Spain, Diesel stores already offer dressing rooms with Facebook links so you can poll your friends on the looks you're trying on. Websites like gotryiton let you poll your social community for opinions on the outfit you want to buy.

    In-store communities are playing a bigger role, too, as retail outlets build loyalty, trust and sales by fostering genuine communities. It's not necessarily done with online tools, either. Repeat Tour de France champion Lance Armstrong owns a bike shop called Mellow Johnny's, in his hometown of Austin, Texas, that offers free showers for bike commuters, free classes, and even a café where you can recharge before going on one of the shop's group bike rides. And community members are even starting to determine what gets made and sold at some stores. Made, a U.K. furniture retailer, already lets customers vote online for which pieces of furniture it should manufacture. This is a disruption of the classic top-down, designer-to-consumer model, and the start of a genuinely new retail hierarchy.