页岩气取代可再生能源行不通

     页岩气的第二大吸引力，也可能是更大的吸引力在于其经济利益。根据安永会计师事务所（Ernst & Young）报告，2011年石油和天然气交易额高达3,170亿美元，其中660亿美元与页岩气相关。报告认为，这种趋势还将继续，而代价则是牺牲对传统可再生能源的投资。页岩气的迅猛发展已经造就了六七位新的亿万富豪。如今，人们都把页岩气行业比作蓬勃发展时期的互联网业。但正如互联网业泡沫后来的破裂，页岩气这个理想黄金国如今也面临着风险。由于供过于求，价格下跌，页岩气生产商也面临着相当严峻的挑战。

    奥巴马总统提出，美国还有近一百年的天然气储备量，但美国政府下属的能源信息管理局（Energy Information Administration）却对这个观点提出了质疑。厄运已经降临到了清洁科技产业。决策层需要就是否用页岩气替代可再生能源做出决定，或者效仿中国，培育两种能源共存的机制。要知道，中国页岩存储量可比美国庞大得多。

    Sunil Sharan是西埃拉能源咨询公司（Sierra Consulting）的创始人。他曾供职于通用电气公司（General Electric），并在2008年到2009年期间担任通用电气智能电网项目（Smart Grid Initiative）负责人。他在能源行业拥有11年多的工作经验。他的邮箱

    译者：李玫晓/汪皓

     Shale's second, and perhaps greater attraction, is money. Of the $317 billion in oil and gas deals struck in 2011, $66 billion were shale-related, according to accounting firm Ernst & Young. The trend, they believe, will continue, and at the expense of investment in traditional renewables. Already, the shale surge has minted a half-dozen new billionaires, and is being likened to the Internet boom. But just as the latter went bust, so is the shale El Dorado at risk. Shale prices have tumbled from about $8 for a unit of gas in 2008 to roughly $2.50 now. With supply outstripping demand, low prices are crippling producers.

    President Obama claims that America has a nearly 100-year supply of natural gas, but his own Energy Information Administration contests his contention. A blight has already descended on the clean tech industry. Policymakers have to decide whether shale is enticing enough to give renewables a rebuff, or whether the two can coexist, just like what China, which has much greater shale deposits than us, is fostering.

    Sunil Sharan is the founder of Sierra Consulting, an energy consulting firm. He was formerly with General Electric (GE), where he served as the director of GE's Smart Grid Initiative from 2008 to 2009. He has worked in the energy industry for over 11 years, and can be reached at Email .