中国避免经济硬着陆需要派发消费券

    中国消费者需要再接再厉，加大支出，唯有如此，中国经济才能避免硬着陆。但要实现这个目标，前提是中国政府必须制定一系列改革方案，给予消费者信心，让他们停止储蓄，外出购物。虽然政府当前步骤的方向是正确的，但还需推出更多有力的举措来提升中国消费者的购买力，以避免中国经济的引擎骤然熄火——进而导致西方国家经济偏离本已脆弱的复苏轨道。

    中国政府上个月宣布2012年的经济增长目标仅为7.5%，这一消息让全球各地的经济学家大惊失色。倘若美国这类成熟经济体能完成这么高的增长目标，那将是一个惊人的壮举，但对中国而言，这个增长目标简直低得吓人。毕竟，在过去5年中（其中大多数年份恰恰处于全球金融危机爆发之后），中国经济的增速一直维持在9.2%到14.2%之间。

    自中国下调增长目标以来，华尔街的交易员和基金经理越来越担心，中国经济或许将经历一段相当困难的调整期，他们将其称为经济“硬着陆”。何为硬着陆，何为不太严重的软着陆，目前尚无具体的定义，但市场人士似乎普遍认为，如果今年的经济增速低于4%到6%，中国就将经历一次硬着陆。再次说明一下，在更成熟的经济体中，这么高的增长率简直是上天的恩赐，但对于中国经济的总体规划而言，这样的增速不啻为一个沉重的打击。

    那么，中国如何才能防止硬着陆呢？中国政府认为，中国经济增长最终需摆脱对风云莫测的出口市场的依赖，转而通过日益扩大的消费支出来刺激经济，实现内生性增长。中国是一个指令型经济体，这意味着其领导人可以精心策划，引领经济步入特定的发展轨道。按照中国的长期增长规划，从出口大国向消费驱动型经济体的转型原本并不是设定在未来几年发生的事情。但鉴于中国出口总额自2007年以来已经下降了20%，中央的规划部门被迫提前了进程，专注于让中国消费者填补羸弱的出口增长留下的需求缺口。

    为了填补这一缺口，中国政府制定了详实的计划，中心环节在于增加政府开支。在中国政府批准的2012年财政预算案中，赤字目标规模占国内生产总值（GDP）的2%，较2011年的1%出现了大幅提升。政府支出的增加部分将投资于基础设施、教育、保障性住房、社会保障和医保体系的建设。

    赤字支出固然有其好处，但它的规模和广度似乎还不足以帮助中国经济维系高速增长。毕竟，中国政府几年前在全球金融危机如火如荼之际推出的6千亿美元刺激计划取得的结果也只能算是喜忧参半。虽然这项救市计划的规模不可谓不大，但它未能阻止各大经济体增速下滑的态势。这可能是因为政府开支的方向主要集中在了固定资产投资领域（比如建造新港口，改善道路等），而不是推动消费支出方面。政府预定给予社会项目的额外投资或许可以在一定程度上改善中国老百姓的生计，但并不一定有助于推动经济增长——至少无法把经济增速提升至足以弥补出口下降带来的负面影响的水平。中国需要做的是提升消费者的购买力，同时节省社会福利开支。

    China's consumers need to step up and spend if the nation is to avoid an economic hard landing. But in order for that to happen, the Chinese government must institute a number of reforms to give the nation's consumers the confidence to stop saving and go shopping. While the government is taking steps in the right direction, more will be needed to arm Chinese consumers with the necessary buying power to keep the country's economic engine from sputtering out – threatening to derail the already fragile economic recovery in the West.

    Last month the Chinese government shocked economists around the globe by announcing that the nation's economic growth target for 2012 would be just 7.5%. While hitting such a growth target would be an amazing feat for a mature economy like the United States, it is scarily low for China. After all, the country grew between 9.2% and 14.2% over the last five years, most of which followed the rumblings of the global financial crisis.

    Since the target was lowered, traders and fund managers on Wall Street have become increasingly worried that China might experience a much harder economic correction, which they refer to as an economic "hard landing." There is no definition as to what would constitute a hard landing versus a less acute soft landing, but the general consensus seems to believe that China would have a hard landing if its economic growth rate for the year was below 4% to 6%. Again, such high growth rates would be welcomed in more mature economies, but for China, it would be a big blow to the nation's economic master plan.

    So how can China prevent a hard landing? The Chinese government believes that it needs to finally reduce its economic growth away from the fickle export market and stimulate more internal economic growth through increased consumer spending. China is a command economy, meaning that its leaders have elaborate plans that steer the nation on a certain economic path. The transition from export powerhouse to a consumer-driven economy wasn't set to occur for another few years in Beijing's long-term growth plans. But the 20% drop in Chinese exports since 2007 has forced the nation's central planners to move up the timeline and focus on the Chinese consumer to fill in the economic gaps left from weakening export growth.

    Beijing's plan to fill that gap centers on increased government spending. The Chinese government authorized a 2012 fiscal budget deficit target of 2% of GDP, up from 1% in 2011. The increase in spending will be invested in infrastructure, education, social housing, social security and healthcare.

    Deficit spending has its virtues, but the size and scope of the spending here doesn't seem to be adequate to get China's economy going. After all, the special $600 billion economic stimulus package the Chinese government made a couple years back at the height of the global financial crisis has had mixed results. The stimulus, as big as it was, failed to stem the nations declining growth rate. That may be because the scope of the spending was directed to fixed asset investment projects, like building a new port or improving a roadway, and not toward boosting consumer spending. The extra cash the government is slated to invest in social programs may make life better for the average Chinese citizen, but it won't necessarily help boost economic growth – at least not to levels needed to fill the gap from decreased exports. What China needs to do is empower its consumer base and save on the social welfare.