中国避免经济硬着陆需要派发消费券
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成熟经济体中，消费支出往往在经济活动中占据相当大的比重，最显著的例子就是美国：该国的消费支出约占经济总量的70%。多年来，备受指责的美国消费社会不仅支撑着美国经济，而且吸纳了一大块中国出口商品，由此也协助驱动了中国经济的高速增长。但现如今，美国消费者一个子儿也没有了，不能再指望他们吸收更多的中国商品。同时，欧洲的经济困局意味着，寄望欧洲人消化过剩的中国商品也是不现实的。现在，这份责任落在了中国消费者的肩上，他们目前的消费支出仅占中国GDP的44%。 为了提升中国消费者的购买力，中国需要把更多的钱放进老百姓的口袋里，而且要让他们放心大胆地把这笔钱花出去。一条可行之策是通过减税（比如标准税率为17%的增值税）降低商品价格。增值税往往会对消费支出产生负面影响，因为就本质而言，购物者是最终的纳税主体。降低甚或取消增值税、以及中央和地方政府征收的其他消费税，将对消费支出产生立竿见影的积极影响。 中国也应该找出对策，遏制中国消费者在海外花钱的趋势。中国最大的信用卡发行商中国银联（China UnionPay）提供的数据显示，中国消费者去年在海外花费了近500亿美元，较2010年飙升了66%。中国同期的消费品零售总额仅增长了17%，远低于中国公民海外消费的增速。现在，越来越多的中国人走出国门，但出国的主要原因之一在于，他们想购买要么在国内无法买到，要么因沉重的进口关税和其他税收等因素导致国内售价过于高昂的商品。根据中国商务部（the Chinese Ministry of Commerce）提供的数据，中国奢侈品的价格比美国高出了大约50% ，比法国更是足足高出了72%。世界奢侈品协会（World Luxury Association）估计，中国消费者去年的奢侈品购买开支约占欧洲奢侈品销售总额的62%。讽刺的是，他们所购买的许多商品其实都是在中国本土生产制造的。 但本文所说的中国消费者不只是那些有钱购买普拉达（Prada）皮包的富裕群体。就算依靠微薄工资生活的10亿左右中国人的消费支出仅仅出现小幅增长，也足以对中国消费市场产生巨大的推动作用。中国政府或许可以效仿美国在上一轮经济衰退期间的做法，向民众派发“消费券”，临时推动一下消费支出。就长期而言，政府应允许全国各地的工资缓慢增长或制定最低工资制度，从而让更多的民众能够买得起这些年来他们一直在生产制造的商品。当然，所有这些政策都应该保持平衡，逐步推行，以确保消费者购买力的增加部分不会被通货膨胀吞噬。 最终，中国人需要无忧无虑地花钱购物，以帮助中国经济进入下一个发展阶段。要让中国老百姓更放心地增加开支，减少储蓄，中国社保体系还需经历一段漫长进程，逐步改善。消费支出增长的净效应可能是经济活动的显著增长，它将帮助中国经济避免任何形式的着陆，无论是硬着陆，还是软着陆。 译者：任文科 |
Consumer spending makes up the bulk of economic activity in mature economies, most notably in the U.S. where it is around 70% of the economy. The much-maligned American consumer society not only held up the U.S. economy for years, but also helped drive China's growth rate by absorbing a large chunk of its exports. But now, U.S. consumers are tapped out, and therefore cannot be counted on to suck up more Chinese goods. Meanwhile, Europe's economic malaise means that it cannot be counted on either to help mop up surplus Chinese goods. That duty now falls to the Chinese consumer, whose spending comprises just 44% of the country's GDP. To empower the Chinese consumer, Beijing needs to put more money in people's pockets and make them feel comfortable enough to spend it. One way to do this is to make goods cheaper by lowering taxes, like the national 17% VAT tax. VAT taxes have a negative impact on consumer spending as they basically tax people for shopping. Lowering or removing the VAT, along with a number of other state and local consumption taxes, would have a direct and immediate positive impact on consumer spending. The country should also look for a way to keep Chinese consumers from spending money abroad. Chinese consumers spent nearly $50 billion overseas last year, which was up 66% from 2010, according to China UnionPay, the nation's largest credit card issuer. China's overall retail sales growth was up 17% during the same time, far less than the growth in foreign spending. The Chinese are traveling more than ever before, but one of the primary reasons is because they want to go shopping for goods that they either can't get in China or that are too expensive due to all the heavy taxes and import duties. Prices for luxury goods in China are around 50% higher than in the U.S. and a whopping 72% higher than in France, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The World Luxury Association estimates that the Chinese consumer made up around 62% of all luxury sales in Europe last year. Ironically, much of what they are buying was originally made in China. But it isn't just the well-off Chinese buying Prada purses that should be targeted here. The Chinese consumer market could get a huge boost from just a fraction of growth in spending by the billion or so Chinese who live on meager wages. The Chinese government may consider sending out stimulus checks like the U.S. did during its last recession to give a temporary boost to consumer spending. For a longer term fix, the government should allow wages to slowly rise across the country or possibly institute a minimum wage so that more people can afford to buy the things that they have been making all these years. Of course, these policies should be balanced and introduced gradually to ensure that the gains in consumer spending aren't eaten up by inflation. Ultimately, the Chinese need to feel comfortable spending to help China move into its next phase of economic growth. Improvements in the nation's social security system would go a long way to make it easier for Chinese people to spend more and save less. The net effect could be a strong increase in economic activity, which could help China avoid any sort of landing, be it hard or soft. |
