规模决胜：全球车企争霸赛

    汽车销售也许远远无法与iPad或大热影片《饥饿游戏》（Hunger Games）的门票相提并论，但全球汽车销量确实正在节节攀升。2005年以来，全球已售出超过7,500万辆小轿车和卡车，增幅高达18%。美国银行美林证券（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）预计，今年汽车业将进一步增长3.9%。

    然而销量增加带来的好处并没有均衡分配到各个品牌。利润其实日益流向一小撮北美、欧洲和亚洲的大公司。它们利用自身的规模，尽可能地在这个行业获得规模经济效益。未来数年里，这些公司将会变得更为庞大。如果能有效发挥自己的非凡能量，它们可能会让世界上其他汽车厂商统统沦为配角。

    汽车界一些最富有远见的首席执行官都在思考着有关规模、销量以及如何最好地实现这些目标的问题。就在上周，雷诺-尼桑公司（Renault-Nissan）的首席执行官卡洛斯•戈恩在纽约车展（New York auto show）上的发言就谈到这个问题。他说：“汽车业靠的是规模经济，获得富有竞争力的规模经济所需要达到的最低产量正不断提高。”

    是的，还要不断加码。就像尼桑公司（Nissan）的一位高管向我透露的：“现在的1,000万辆等同于曾经的800万辆。”

    菲亚特-克莱斯勒公司（Fiat-Chrysler）的首席执行官马尔乔内也已意识到，竞争性成本结构的门槛已经被抬得越来越高。对于2009年收购克莱斯勒公司（Chrysler）的原因，他的解释是，汽车厂商的年产量至少得达到600万辆才能确保成功。而最近，他再次提高了成功的门槛。现在他的说法是，汽车厂商每年的全球销量要达到1,000万辆才能把开发成本降到理想范围，实现“效率新水平”。

    要实现马尔乔内的目标，菲亚特-克莱斯勒公司就得赶上排在前列、大幅领先的五大巨头。（见下表。）这五大巨头目前由通用汽车（General Motors）领衔。作为世界头号汽车厂商，它一度统治全球市场长达半个世纪之久。不过现在，它必须与雷诺-尼桑同台竞技。而摆脱了召回阴影和自然灾害影响、卷土重来的丰田汽车（Toyota）也是它的强劲对手。紧跟这三大巨头的是快速崛起的现代集团（Hyundai Group）和再次变得雄心勃勃的大众汽车集团（Volkswagen）。

    排在大众之后的就是福特汽车（Ford），但它与前者的差距达到了120万辆。这种差距反映了不同的战略和各自所处的发展阶段。大众掌控的是一个品牌集团，其品牌从主攻大众市场的捷达（Jetta）和帕萨特（Passat），到超小众的布加迪（Bugatti），无所不包。而福特则砍掉了沃尔沃（Volvo）和捷豹-路虎（Jaguar-Land Rover），专注于核心品牌福特旗下的小轿车和卡车。因此，它目前的规模缩水是必须付出的代价。

    声誉卓著的豪华车厂商梅赛德斯-奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）和宝马（BMW）虽然规模相对较小（宝马的规模仅为通用汽车的四分之一），但更高的利润率弥补了这种不足。而介于这两个集团军之间的品牌，尤其是标致（Peugeot）、本田（Honda）、铃木（Suzuki）、马自达（Mazda）和斯巴鲁（Subaru）的母公司富士重工（Fuji Heavy Industries）却发现自己必须面对非常不利的成本劣势。

    They aren't selling like iPads or Hunger Games tickets, but global auto sales are enjoying a nice run. They have grown 18% since 2005 to more than 75 million cars and trucks, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch is expecting the industry to tack on another 3.9% increase this year.

    However, the rewards from those sales are not being shared equally. Increasingly, the profits are going to a handful of mega-companies in North America, Europe, and Asia that are using their size to make best use of the industry's economies of scale. These companies are expected to grow even larger in the years ahead. If they properly apply their brute strength, they may turn the rest of the world's automakers into also-rans.

    The question of size, sales volume, and how best to achieve it is preoccupying the minds of some of the industry's most forward-looking CEOs. Just last week, Renault-Nissan's Carlos Ghosn raised the issue in a speech in conjunction with the New York auto show. Said Ghosn: "Ours is an industry of scale, and the minimum volume necessary to achieve competitive economies of scale keeps going up."

    And up. As one Nissan executive told me, "Ten million units is the new eight million."

    Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne also sees the bar for a competitive cost structure rising higher and higher. When he explained his rationale behind the Chrysler takeover in 2009, Marchionne said that automakers needed annual sales of at least six million vehicles in order to be successful. More recently, he has raised the bar of success. He now says that an automaker needs to sell 10 million units per year globally in order to reach "a new level of efficiency" and reduce development costs to where he wants them.

    In order to reach Marchionne's volume target, Fiat-Chrysler will have to catch up to five manufacturers that are extending big leads. (See the table below.) The quintet is led by General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), which reigned as the world's largest automaker for half a century but now must contend with Renault/Nissan and a resurgent Toyota that is shaking off the effects of recalls and natural disasters. Trailing this Big Three are the fast-rising Hyundai Group and a newly ambitious Volkswagen.

    After VW, there is a gap of 1.2 million units until you come to Ford (F, Fortune 500). The difference reflects divergent strategies and stages of development. While VW has been managing a house of brands ranging from mass-market Jettas and Passats to the ultra-exclusive Bugatti, Ford has been jettisoning companies like Volvo and Jaguar-Land Rover in order to focus on its core Ford cars and trucks. As a result, it has paid a penalty in size.

    Prestige luxury makers Mercedes-Benz and BMW can compensate for their smaller volumes -- BMW is one quarter the size of GM -- with richer margins. But those companies caught in the middle -- notably Peugeot, Honda, Suzuki, Mazda, and Fuji Heavy Industries, parent of Subaru -- could find themselves facing a significant cost disadvantage.