规模决胜：全球车企争霸赛

    光靠产量不能解决一切。规模会带来管理上的复杂性，它可以既是有利条件又是不利因素。通用汽车当初的破产就生动地说明了这一点。成功的关键在于有效运用各种资源，以实现规模经济。扩大规模可使厂商通过更高的产量摊薄工程技术和产品研发成本。企业努力削减汽车生产平台的数量时，这种规模上的优势会带来显著的好处。

    大众汽车和丰田之所以享有优势，是因为它们更懂得如何巧妙地运用自己的规模去赢得效率。凭借同一套基本零件，大众能生产300万辆各型车辆——这个数字笑傲全球同行。而丰田所拥有的是堪称全球第二的高产平台。

    通用汽车也在努力实现类似的规模经济效益。它已宣布，计划将自己的汽车生产平台削减近半，从2010年的30个减少到2018年的14个。通过这一举措，它预计每年可省下10亿美元，其中大部分都是工程技术方面的成本。但是，与大众相比，通用的举措简直是小巫见大巫。大众正在开发一个名为MQB的乘用车单一生产平台，它能用来生产大众、奥迪（Audi）、斯柯达（Skoda）和西亚特（Seat）这4大品牌的40多种车型。大众预计，它能将产品开发和零部件成本削减20%，生产时间缩短30%。

    为了具备更大规模，汽车厂商正在像服用类固醇的棒球选手一样让自己的体型不断膨胀。雷诺-尼桑公司正扩大与戴姆勒的合作，在其位于田纳西州的动力系统工厂中为梅赛德斯-奔驰生产引擎。而德国欧宝（Opel）则与法国标致联手开发共用生产平台。与此同时，马尔乔内正在一边虎视眈眈。业界普遍猜测，他正为菲亚特-克莱斯勒公司物色第三家、甚至是第四家合作伙伴。

    这种拉郎配式的强强联合对于有些公司来说实在是勉为其难。比如福特家族的拥有者就不愿意放弃对福特的控制权，而本田则在理念上就显得特立独行，不愿赶这个时髦，宁肯埋头走自己的路。丰田也想自己有机成长，不过通过自己的豪华品牌雷克萨斯（Lexus）和子品牌普锐斯（Prius）的出色表现，它已成功地实现了扩张。

    上述举措和其他动作的影响已反映在美国环球透视公司（IHS）的“2020年汽车产业预测报告”中（见下表）。虽然这些公司的排名顺序有所变化，但五大巨头始终稳居前列，并且其领导地位已大幅超过那些跑龙套的企业。据IHS称，大众将无法实现1,000万辆的产能目标，但它对福特的领先优势将从130万辆扩大为170万辆。而丰田对本田的领先优势将从2011年的380万辆扩大到440万辆。

    对规模的追逐会不可避免地导致行业的集中度继续提高。30多年来，专家们一直预测说，汽车厂商的数量将减少到分布在三大洲的六家主要企业。这一情景还未成为现实是因为各国政府不让国有车企垮台，实际上它们在经济规律的作用下本来应该早就已经消失了。但是法国和意大利真的需要多达三家的独立汽车企业吗？最近两国出现了一系列的异动，加上21世纪的财政状况形势严峻，一切都表明清算的日子可能已为期不远了。

    Volume alone is no solution. Size creates complexity, which can be a handicap as well as a help, as GM's bankruptcy vividly demonstrated. The key to success is to deploy resources effectively in order to realize economies of scale. More scale enables manufacturers to spread the costs of engineering and product development over larger volumes. It pays particular dividends as companies strain to reduce the number of platforms that underpin their vehicles.

    VW and Toyota have the advantage here because they are cleverer about using their size as a lever to get efficiencies. With a single set of basic components, VW is able to build three million cars -- more than any company in the world, while Toyota owns the second most prolific platform.

    GM is striving for similar economies. It has announced that it plans to almost halve its vehicle platforms from 30 in 2010 to 14 in 2018. By so doing, it expects to save $1 billion annually, mostly in engineering costs. But its efforts look miniscule compared to VW, which is developing a single passenger car platform called MQB that will underpin more than 40 models from four brands: VW, Audi, Skoda, and Seat. VW expects to cut its costs for product development and parts by 20% and its production time by 30%.

    In order to get bigger, automakers are bulking up like so many steroid-era baseball players. Renault-Nissan is broadening its partnership with Daimler by building engines for Mercedes-Benz at its powertrain plant in Tennessee, while Germany's Opel has linked up with France's Peugeot to develop common platforms. Meanwhile Sergio Marchionne watches enviously from the sidelines. He is widely speculated to be hunting for a third -- or even fourth -- partner for Fiat Chrysler.

    Such shotgun marriages will be difficult for companies like Ford, whose family owners are unwilling to give up control of their company, and Honda, which seems to be philosophically unwilling to do anything but chart its own course. Toyota also wants to grow organically, but it has had more success expanding with its Lexus luxury vehicles and Prius sub-brand.

    The impact of these moves and others is reflected in the IHS forecast for 2020, also in the chart below. Although the order has changed, the five mega-companies remain at the head of the pack, and their lead has lengthened over the also-rans. VW will not have reached its goal of ten million units according to IHS, but its lead over Ford is expected to grow from 1.3 million units to 1.7 million units. And Toyota, which led Honda by 3.8 million units in 2011, is forecast to stretch its advantage to 4.4 million units.

    The drive for size will inevitably lead to additional consolidation of the industry. For 30 years or more, experts have been predicting that the number of automakers would shrink to six major players on three continents. That hasn't happened because governments have kept national companies afloat when economic logic would have dictated otherwise. But do France and Italy really need three independent car companies between them? The recent flurry of activity -- and the hard fiscal realities of the 21st century -- suggests that the day of reckoning may be at hand.