为什么华尔街不喜欢奥朗德

    在他攻击敌人之前，奥朗德有必要在社会政策方面做出一些政绩，这样可能会在其他的欧元区引发波动效应。他表示会提高最低薪资标准，取消原定计划内的支出削减，重新雇用数万名政府职员，并将退休年龄由62岁调回60岁。他还希望增加政府预算来资助大型基础设施项目——所有这些都是为了刺激经济增长。

    为了给这些政策买单，奥朗德打算在法国玩命征税。年收入超过100万欧元的人群所得税税率将由45%上升至惊人的75%。随后他将目标瞄准了银行，将其税赋提高15%。此外，他希望推行金融交易税，它将使法国已然疲软的金融领域雪上加霜。金融交易税将冲击频率较高的贸易，对于一些在法国运营的对冲基金和银行来说，这一主要利润来源将就此消失。该税也将降低法国经纪及中介公司的交易竞争力。

    为了避免金融公司大规模出逃，奥朗德很有可能会游说在全欧范围内推行这一税收政策。尽管英国在过去曾经成功地扼杀了征收交易税的企图，但是奥朗德不会像其前任那样轻易放弃。法国可以通过其他一系列政治问题来迫使英国就范。鉴于奥巴马政府认为大西洋两岸的金融法规和限制应保持一致，因此华尔街将对此保持密切关注。真正令人担心的是，法国的金融交易税有可能最终在全世界范围内得以推行。

    社会党领导下的法国也有可能影响新国际银行业标准的实施，即众所周知的巴塞尔协议Ⅲ（Basel III）。在布鲁塞尔，欧洲财政大臣们目前正在讨论如何联合实施新的法规，并藉此迫使银行在其负债表中保留更多的资金。奥朗德所领导的法国很有可能推高利率，危及欧洲银行的借贷能力。欧洲各国在巴塞尔协议Ⅲ框架下所制定的每一个协议都将对最终成为国际标准的利率产生巨大的影响。华尔街一向偏爱低利率，这样银行就能握有更多的现金用于投资。高利率将进一步制约银行的借贷业务——这不仅不利于银行，也不利于美国经济。

    奥朗德的金融战争可能只会带来更为严格的法规或高利率，但真正令人担心的是他可能不会就此收手。目前维系欧元完整靠的是欧洲央行的廉价资金，但他却在周三的辩论当中对此表达了不满。他讽刺说：“银行以1%的利率从欧洲央行拿贷款，然后以6%的利率放贷。我强烈反对。”

    很多关注这场辩论的人可能都没太在意这句无关紧要的声明，但可能已经为多个欧洲国家敲响了警钟。因为欧洲央行廉价资金的流通是目前维系欧盟不致全面解体的唯一救命稻草。欧洲央行最终印刷的这些钞票廉价地流入了各国银行，而银行得以藉此购买主权债务。这也使得欧洲边缘国家能继续运转下去，从而避免违约以及欧元区的崩溃。它也使得银行有能力向企业和消费者发放更多的贷款，增加他们在经济中的支出。银行所赚取的差价也有利于银行来填补负债表上的巨额漏洞，继而走出危机的阴影。

    Before he goes after his enemy, Hollande will need to make good on some socialist policies, which could have spillover effects on the rest of the eurozone. He says he will raise the minimum wage, cancel scheduled spending cuts, hire back thousands of government workers and roll back the retirement age from 62 to 60. He also wants to increase government spending to sponsor large infrastructure projects - all in a bid to spur economic growth.

    To pay for this, Hollande wants to tax France to death. Anyone making more than a million euros a year will see their tax rate go from 45% to a mind-blowing 75%. He'll then stick it to the banks, raising their taxes by 15%. In addition, he wants to implement a financial transaction tax, which could have dire consequences on France's already weak financial sector. The tax would hurt high frequency trading, wiping out a major profit center for some hedge funds and banks that operate in France. It would also hurt the competitiveness of France's broker-dealers in executing transactions.

    To avoid financial firms from leaving in droves, Hollande will most likely push for the tax to be implemented across the European Union. While the UK has successfully blocked attempts to implement a transaction tax in the past, Hollande isn't likely to give up as easily as his predecessors. The French could back the UK into a corner on a number of other political issues to get its way on this one. Wall Street will be watching closely given the Obama administration's view that financial rules and restrictions should be harmonized on both sides of the Atlantic. The fear is that France's financial transaction tax could eventually go worldwide.

    Socialist France could also impact the implementation of new international banking standards, known as Basel III. In Brussels, European finance ministers are currently discussing how they will collectively implement new rules that will eventually force banks to hold more capital on their balance sheet. A France run by Hollande will most likely push for a higher rate, jeopardizing the lending capacity of European banks. Any agreement made on Basel III by the Europeans will have a big influence on the rate that ends up being the international standard. Wall Street is in favor of a low rate so banks can invest more of its cash. A high rate would further restrict bank lending – hurting not only bank profits, but also the U.S. economy.

    Hollande's war on finance could be limited to tougher regulations or higher taxes, but there is a real fear that he could take it too far. During Wednesday's debate he noted his discontent with the one thing that is holding the euro together– cheap funding from the European Central Bank. He scornfully said, "banks get a loan from ECB at 1% and lend at 6%. I refuse."

    This seemingly innocuous statement went largely unnoticed by many watching the debate, but it probably set off alarm bells in several European capitals. That's because this pass through of cheap funding from the ECB is the only thing keeping Europe from totally falling apart. The money the ECB is essentially printing is being lent to banks on the cheap so they can turn around and buy sovereign debt. This allows European countries on the periphery to continue funding themselves, avoiding default and a eurozone meltdown. It also allows the banks to lend more to businesses and consumers in order to increase spending in the economy. The spread the banks earn helps to fill the massive holes in their balance sheet so that they can recover from the crisis.