为什么华尔街不喜欢奥朗德

    欧洲央行几乎花了两年的时间来克服超级通胀的恐惧，并最终打开了钱袋。如果奥朗德拒绝加入这一与狼共舞的经济交易，最坏的情况就是：意大利、西班牙、希腊甚至德国和法国的银行倒闭，导致全欧元区出现高息借贷和致命的主权违约。欧元可能就此寿终正寝。美国和亚洲购买欧洲金融产品的金融机构也会受到沉重的打击，由此引发的恐慌将使得2008年的金融危机看起来更像是香榭丽舍大街（Champs-Élysées）上的闲庭信步。

    平心而论，出现这种惨烈的结局没有考虑一种可能性，也就是奥朗德可能会在某个时候改变策略。奥朗德在法国国会以游说能力强著称，善于弥合分歧。社会党政客经常在选举活动中通过大肆谴责银行来争取选票，因此奥朗德对金融系统的仇恨说不定只是他用来博取选民欢心的手段。一旦掌权，他有可能会有所收敛。而这显然符合华尔街的愿望。

    译者：翔

    It took almost two years for the ECB to get over its fear of hyperinflation and finally open the spigots. If Hollande refuses to go along with this economic deal with the devil then a worst-case scenario could play out: Bank failures in Italy, Spain and Greece, and even in Germany and France, leading to high yields and crippling sovereign defaults across the eurozone. The euro would be finished. U.S. and Asian financial firms with European exposure would get hit hard, setting off a panic that would make 2008 look like a pleasant stroll along the Champs-Élysées.

    To be fair, this dire scenario precludes the possibility of Hollande, who is known in the French parliament to be a strong consensus builder, from changing tack at some point. Socialist politicians usually ramp up the rhetoric against banks on the campaign trail to pick up votes, so Hollande's hatred of the financial system may just be his way of playing to his base. Once in office, he might actually tone it down. Wall Street certainly hopes he does.