全美航空并购案中的工会博弈

    同时，全美航空与其老员工的关系也存在争议。所以，全美航空这么短的时间内就与美航的工会组织达成了协议，最意外的人莫过于全美航空自己的员工了。多年以来，全美航空公司的飞行员一直要求加薪，并且自2009年12月起，一直在与公司管理层就新劳动合同进行谈判。此外，自从去年11月份合同到期以来，空乘人员也一直在与航空公司谈判。

    但全美航空声称，合并所带来的12.5亿美元协同收入将用于为员工加薪，使公司员工达到美航公司员工的收入水平。公司还宣布，合并后不会大规模减少航线或削减运力。而要实现这些承诺，全美航空只能寄希望于更强劲的增长或者更丰厚的利润空间，来实现高收入协同效应目标。然而，很不幸的是，几乎还没有证据显示，一家航空公司合并之后的增长率一定会显著高于同行业其他公司。

    所以，全美航空要想获得成功，就必须向负责监督美航破产的债权人委员会提供一份极具说服力的方案，因为该委员会对于美航的最终命运具有极大的影响力。委员会九名成员中，三名来自美航公司的工会组织，所以，至少目前来说，全美航空已经得到了三张赞成票。另外三位成员是美航公司的无担保债权人，他们自然希望在最短的时间内做成最划算的交易。最后三名成员分别来自退休金福利担保公司（Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation）、波音公司（Boeing）和惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）。

    全美航空曾经有过类似的经历。之前在达美航空破产时，全美航空曾参与并购，最终未能如愿。当时，全美航空在提出的方案中为债权人委员会开出了丰厚的条件，并保证实现强劲的收入协同效应。然而，虽然这个方案在纸面上看起来比达美航空管理层的方案更诱人，债权人委员会却认为该方案太过冒险。委员会担心收入协调效用无法实现，而且政府可能根据反垄断法质疑这宗并购交易。而且，全美航空可能在达美航空破产清算过程中便开始旷日持久、痛苦的并购，进而推迟向债权人支付的日期。

    这一次，全美航空已经有三票在手，它希望借此让其他债权人相信，全美航空将迅速完成两家公司的整合，这样债权人拿到钱的时间不会比选择美航的方案超出太多。

    现在轮到美航站出来缓和局面，同时还可能需要拿出更多的前来安抚工会组织。全美航空的方案已经得到了美航工会组织的支持，因此远远要比单打独斗看起来更具可行性。目前，两份方案之间的出入只有区区1.9亿美元。预计美航将在几周内向法院提交破产方案，但如果提交延期，破产程序则可能延长数月。美航或许需要做出一点小小的让步，重新赢得工会组织的支持。但如果美航过于软弱，可能过不了几年它又得重新走上破产法庭。

    译者：阿龙/汪皓

    US Airways continues to have a contentious relationship with its own employees. Perhaps no one was more surprised by how swift US Airways was able to come to an agreement with American's unions than its own unions. US Airways pilots have been pushing for a wage increase for years and have been negotiating a new contract with management since December of 2009. The flight attendants are also negotiating with the airline as their contract ran out in November of last year.

    But US Airways claims the $1.25 billion in synergies that will come out of the merger reflects an increase in pay for its employees, which would bring them in line with American employees. It also claims that it would not significantly cut routes or eliminate capacity as a result of the merger, either. So for all this to be true, US Airways must be anticipating high revenue synergies through stronger growth or fatter profit margins. Unfortunately, there is little to no evidence that merged airlines end up experiencing significantly stronger growth rates relative to the rest of the industry.

    So for US Airways to be successful it will need to present a very convincing plan to the creditors committee overseeing American's bankruptcy, which has a big influence on whether the airline merges or flies solo. Three of the nine members of the committee are representatives from American's unions, so US Airways can claim them, at least for now. Three represent American's unsecured creditors, so they will want the best deal they can can get in the shortest amount of time possible. The rest of the committee is made up of one member from the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, Boeing, and Hewlett-Packard, respectively.

    US Airways has been down this road before when it unsuccessfully tried to snap up Delta in bankruptcy. In that case, US Airways presented a plan that saw greater benefits flowing down to the members of the creditors committee with promises of strong revenue synergies. While it was on paper a better plan than the one presented by Delta's management, it was also considered riskier. There was concern that those revenue synergies would never materialize and that the government could challenge the merger on anti-trust grounds. And US Airways would have started the long and painful merger while Delta was still in bankruptcy, pushing back the date at which the creditors would get paid.

    This time, US Airways has three votes right off the bat. It is hoping to use that leverage to convince the other creditors that they will be able to quickly integrate the two companies so that they won't have to wait much longer to get paid than if they went with American's plan.

    It is now up to American to diffuse the situation and possibly bring more money to the table to appease its unions. With American's unions by its side, US Airways' plan looks far more actionable than it would if it went in alone. The difference between the plans right now appears to be just $190 million. American is expected to present its bankruptcy plan to the courts in a couple of weeks but it could get an extension to stretch out the process for several months. American may need to give in a bit to win its unions back, but not too much. If it is too weak, the airline could wind up right back in bankruptcy court in a few years.