美国政府是否应该尽快售出通用持股？

    对于美国政府在通用汽车公司（GM）中所持的28%股份该何去何从，现在出现了严重的意见分歧。奥巴马当局要坚持持有。而共和党总统竞选人米特•罗姆尼则主张，政府应该尽快售出这些股份——哪怕因此蒙受损失也在所不惜。

    许多通用汽车内部人士似乎与罗姆尼抱有相同看法。一位不愿透露姓名的通用汽车高管表示：“不管是政府汽车公司（Government Motors），还是奥巴马汽车公司，这些戏称我们都烦透了。”“我们当然希望美国政府卖掉这些股份，”他补充道。该公司早已不再愿意发表任何可能被认为是对政府忘恩负义的意见。毕竟2009年在它濒临破产时，是政府出手相助，通过总额高达500亿美元贷款和入股的方式进行的注资，才让它起死回生。

    在正式场合，通用汽车的立场是，股东完全可以按照自己的意愿做出选择。通用汽车公共事务副总裁斯里姆•宾格尔称：“这么说的好处和坏处在于，股东会自己挑时间采取行动。政府没打算长期持有这些股份，我们是希望他们能卖掉它们的。”

    针对美国政府出手拯救通用汽车一事，互联网上的批评之声不绝于耳。不少人发誓用实际行动表示不满，他们拒绝购买通用汽车的各个子品牌，比如雪佛兰（Chevrolet）、凯迪拉克（Cadillac）和别克（Buick）。而克莱斯勒集团（Chrysler Group LLC）的车也未能幸免，因为它也接受过美国政府的救助。通用汽车的销售会因此而受到多大程度的影响尚不清楚。著名汽车网站Edmunds.com的副总裁杰里米•安维尔称：“我甚至没法确定有多少消费者真的了解哪些品牌是通用汽车旗下的。”

    而2010年11月通用上市后，投资者也没给它好脸色看。发行价33美元的股票在过去18个月已跌掉约1/3。美国政府已经卖掉了约一半的股份。但要让纳税人完全接盘剩余的270亿美元股份，股价就必须达到平均每股约51美元，这将是目前股价的一倍还多。如果不卖，奥巴马当局至少最后有可能完全收回投资。而如果卖掉，安维尔称：“就会造成亏损。”

    拉低通用汽车利润和股价的一个因素是对其在欧洲的未来前景难以确定。第一财季，该公司净利润10亿美元，同比下降达69%，欧洲的亏损是主要肇因。通用汽车欧洲公司该季息税前亏损达2.56亿美元，而一年前同期利润也仅为500万美元。第二个压制对通用汽车股票需求的因素是，市场普遍担忧，如果美国财政部突然卖掉所持股票，股市将整体下挫，股价也会随之猛跌。

    本周初在密尔肯研究院全球会议（Milken Institute Global Conference）上，曾任奥巴马政府汽车业工作小组负责人、因而被称为“汽车沙皇”的斯蒂夫•瑞特纳发言称，美国应等到2013或2014年再卖。他表示，一直以来美国财政部的假设是，它最多能持有通用汽车的股票七年之久。

    显然，目前的总统大选形势非常需要一个健康的通用汽车公司。副总统拜登已开始散播一个竞选口号，即“拉登死了，通用活着”（Osama is dead, GM is alive），以此作为奥巴马任内政绩的概括之一。而另一位竞选者罗姆尼在努力使自己的竞选主张有别于对手的同时也特别强调，底特律汽车业能再度复兴，他也备感欣慰。

    不过，对通用汽车和它的股东来说，最好的出路是，明智而迅速地解决其在欧洲多年来的经营困境。只有基于更理想收入的高股价，才会让这些政治纷争变成遥远的回忆。

    译者：清远

    The Obama administration is holding on tightly to its 28% stake in General Motors Co., while Republican contender Mitt Romney advocates that the government should sell its GM shares pronto -- even at a loss.

    Many inside the Detroit-based automaker seem to share Romney's point of view. "We're tired of the Government Motors jokes and we're tired of the Obama Motors jokes," says one GM (GM) executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Of course we wish the U.S. would sell," this person adds. The company has been weary of saying anything that might be interpreted as ingratitude toward a government that arranged and financed its life-saving 2009 bankruptcy to the tune of $50 billion in loans and equity.

    Officially, GM's position is that shareholders are free to do as they wish. "The long and the short of it is that shareholders will do what they want to do in their own time," said Selim Bingol, GM's vice president of public affairs. "The government didn't intend to become a longterm holder, we would expect them to get out of the stock."

    The Internet resounds with criticism of the U.S. government's rescue of GM, as commenters have vowed to show their displeasure by avoiding GM brands like Chevrolet, Cadillac and Buick, as well as those made by Chrysler Group LLC, the other Detroit-based automaker rescued by Washington. To what extent GM sales are hurt isn't clear. Jeremy Anwyl, vice chairman of the Edmunds.com automotive website, said "I'm not even sure how much consumers know that individual brands are made by GM."

    Investors have been hard on GM since its public offering in November 2010. Shares were offered at $33 and have declined in value by about a third over the past 18 months. The U.S. Has already sold roughly half its stake. But to make taxpayers whole on the remaining $27 billion owed to the U.S., the stock would have to be sold at an average of $51 a share, more than double its current price. By not selling, the Obama administration at least preserves the possibility an eventual full repayment. By selling, Anwyl said, "the loss is locked in."

    One factor holding back GM profits and stock price is uncertainty about its future in Europe, where losses contributed to a 69% decline in first-quarter profit to $1 billion. GM Europe lost $256 million in the quarter, before interest and taxes, compared with a scant $5 million profit a year ago. A second factor holding back demand for shares may be the apprehension that a sudden sale by the U.S. Treasury could swamp the market and send share prices plunging.

    Speaking earlier this week at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, Obama's former "car czar" Steve Rattner said the U.S. ought to wait until 2013 or 2014 to sell. He said the Treasury always assumed that it could hold GM shares for up to seven years.

    Clearly the president's re-election campaign is hanging its hat on a healthy GM -- Vice President Biden has floated a potential campaign slogan of "Osama is dead, GM is alive" -- as one of Obama's key accomplishments in office. And candidate Romney is trying to distinguish his policies from those of his opponent while emphasizing that he, too, is pleased that Detroit is on its feet.

    Yet the best development of all for GM – and its shareholders – will be a clever and speedy resolution of its perennial woes in Europe. Higher share prices on the heels of stronger earnings will make political squabbles seem like a distant memory.