奥朗德上台之后，法国何去何从

    为描述德国总理安吉拉•默克尔（Angela Merkel）和法国总统尼古拉斯•萨科齐（Nicolas Sarkozy）在经济危机期间为团结欧洲所做的努力，媒体曾经象征性地将二者联姻，戏称这一对为“默科齐”（Merkozy）。现在媒体同样是揉和人名，创造了一个新词，用来悲观地描述了默克尔和法国新任社会党总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德之间的关系。这个词就是“默徳”（Merde）。

    奥朗德将于5月16日正式上任。他将是二战以来第二位掌握法国大权的社会党人士。他的想法既大胆又具有破坏性——例如通过向富人征税来盘活法国财政，以及通过雇用更多的政府雇员来降低失业率。为此备感担忧的人群不仅包括48%支持萨科齐的选民，还包括那些同时反对这两位候选人，因而拒绝投票的民众。相比较而言，市场似乎对奥朗德准备在另一领域实施的计划更为不安——即他承诺领导一个“新欧洲”。奥朗德在他的竞选活动中声称，“欧洲并不是由德国说了算”。他竞选主题的一个主要元素就是打着欧洲多个难兄难弟的旗号谴责德国的紧缩政策。他甚至还断言自己在当选法国总统后的出访第一站就要去柏林，“重新谈判”倾注了“默科齐”大量时间的财政契约。

    为了避免这样尴尬的会面，默克尔曾帮助萨科齐竞选，而且在接下来的几个月中，她也会忙得焦头烂额。奥朗德深知自己还有很长一段路要走。但是在这个过程中，他将认识到，无论他如何虚张声势，德国仍是大权在握。德国的经济远比法国健康，而且默克尔的支持率也很高。虽然目前有人质疑她的紧缩计划，但她迅速地将这一辞令改为“增长契约”。紧缩计划中的一些灵活性说不定该还真的有利于欧洲经济的健康——因为在西班牙这样一些国家，经济危机的幕后推手主要是房地产价格而不是国债，而且这些国家迫切需要调整经济增长点。与此同时，这项欧洲紧缩试验若想获得成功，实施某种形式的预算管制似乎是唯一可行的出路。从政治角度来看，默克尔采取这样的立场毫不吃力，而奥朗德则比较困难。

    随着奥朗德开始其在法国国家政府的历练，他的双鬓可能会变得比巴拉克•奥巴马更花白。首先，虽然他承诺法国将于2013年达到欧盟财政紧缩政策3%的赤字目标，并在2017年底达到预算收支平衡，但他并没有说明如何实现这一目标。同时，法国国债，即法国政府为了支付开支所借的贷款，预计将于2013年底达到国内生产总值的90%。而奥朗德曾表示2013年将是法国经济回归强势增长的年份。然而，尤其鉴于英国和西班牙经济的二次探底，大多数经济预测并不像奥朗德描绘的那么美好。

    由于法国与德国一道受困于欧元区，因此，如果奥朗德希望获得欧洲的主导权同时保留法国社会模式的精华部分，他的主要目标应该是提高法国的竞争力。然而在这一点上，他仍没有拿出具体的方案。虽然法、德两国工人的生产力水平不相上下，但是法国的出口市场一直在欧洲垫底。此外，法国慷慨的社会福利也造成了劳动力市场的失调。工会和国家法律的过度保护使得企业难以解雇不合格的工人——这也意味着，被开除的工人也能拿到由企业或国家发放的丰厚补助，某些情况下还能拿双份。奥朗德还希望将退休年龄调回60岁。退休年龄从60岁推迟到62岁是萨科奇结构性改革中唯一有意义的尝试，因此奥朗德的这一想法似乎遥不可及。

    "Merkozy" is what the press dubbed the symbolic marriage of fortune between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, describing their efforts to hold Europe together through economic crisis. Now a new portmanteau has been coined, mashing the names -- and pessimistically describing the relationship -- between Merkel and France's new socialist president, Francois Hollande, as "Merde."

    On May 16th, when Hollande is inaugurated, he will be only the second socialist to run the country since World War II. His promises are bold and disruptive -- including restoring France's budget by taxing the rich and reducing unemployment by hiring more government workers. This deeply worries the 48% of the French voters who cast a ballot for Sarkozy, or those who protested both candidates by refusing to vote at all. Markets, by contrast, seemed more troubled by Hollande's plans on another front -- his promises to lead a "New Europe." "Germany doesn't decide for all of Europe," Hollande proclaimed on the campaign trail. A major element of his campaign narrative has been to fight against German austerity on behalf of Europe's beleaguered economies. He has even asserted that his first French presidential trip will be to Berlin, to "renegotiate" the fiscal compact that took "Merkozy" so long to pass.

    Merkel, who offered to help Sarkozy campaign to avoid this uncomfortable meeting, will have her hands full over the next few months. Hollande knows he has a lot to prove. But what he's about to learn is that no matter his posturing, Germany still holds much of the power. Germany's economy remains significantly healthier than France's, and Merkel's approval ratings are high. Though her austerity programs are now in question, she's been quick to shift her own rhetoric to a "growth compact." Some flexibility with respect to austerity may actually be healthy for Europe -- certain countries, like Spain, have economic woes driven more by housing prices than national debt, and could desperately used a shift in focus toward growth. At the same time, however, some form of budget discipline appears to be the only sane path forward if the European experiment is to succeed. Politically, that's an easy stand to take for Merkel. It will be harder for Hollande.

    Hollande's hair may yet go whiter than Barack Obama's as he begins to collect experience in France's national government. First, though he promised that France will hit the 3% deficit target in the EU's fiscal compact in 2013 and will achieve a balanced budget by 2017, he hasn't explained how he will do this. Meanwhile, France's public debt, the amount of money borrowed by the French government to pay its bills, is projected to reach 90% of GDP by 2013. This is the year that Hollande says France will return to strong growth. But particularly with the U.K. and Spain in a double-dip recession, most economic forecasts aren't as rosy as Hollande's.

    Locked into the euro alongside Germany, Hollande's main goal, if he wants to lead Europe and preserve the best parts of France's social model, should be to increase French competitiveness. Again, he has yet to lay out a specific plan. Although worker productivity is similar in Germany and France, the French export market is among the weakest in Europe. Further, France's generous welfare state has led to a dysfunctional labor market, where excessive protection by labor unions and state laws make it hard for incompetent workers to be fired -- and mean that even those who are fired wind up getting paid off handsomely by either their company, the state, or in some cases both. Hollande's idea to rollback the retirement age to 60, after Sarkozy pushed it to 62 in one of his only meaningful attempts at structural reform, seems wildly out of touch.