美国是否应该提高石油产量

   导致这一现象的原因之一是英国石油公司（British Petroleum）的漏油事件导致墨西哥湾产量减少，此外，俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和墨西哥等主要产油国对私营石油公司的敌意，致使他们转而依靠效率低下的国内石油公司。基利安称：“大型石油公司很难找到一个不必担心被没收的投资目标。”

    美国石油储量丰富，而且生产成本不仅远远低于目前105美元的全球石油价格，也低于全球市场正常情况下每桶70至80美元的价格。因此，美国扩大石油产量，必然会降低全球石油价格。问题就在于降低的幅度。如果美国以35至40美元的成本新开采页岩油，便可以满足全球总体需求，无需开采最为昂贵的含油砂（80美元）。由于其成本优势，所有新开采的页岩油的价格甚至会成为实现市场供需平衡的最高价格，从而替代从墨西哥湾以55美元成本开采的原油。

    而如果需求继续增加，则美国额外扩大的产量可以帮助全球石油产量与需求保持同步，并且将价格稳定在70或80美元的水平。如果没有美国增加的国内石油供应，该价格可能会继续飙升。

增加产量，平抑价格

    为了大幅降低全球石油价格，美国到底需要新生产多少石油？答案是很多。据克莱采尔计算，全球产量每增加1%，便可使全球石油价格下降2%至3%。目前，美国原油产量为每天600万桶。那么，如果美国每天额外生产200万桶，会有什么效果？这意味着，全球石油供给增加了2.3%，在其他方面保持不变的情况下，全球石油价格将下降4.6%至6.9%。按照目前的价格计算，也就是每桶下降4.70美元至7.10美元。

    但美国是否能够做到如此规模的增长？目前，美国主要页岩油产地，包括北达科他州的巴肯页岩区、德克萨斯州的伊格福特页岩区，以及宾夕法尼亚州的马塞卢斯页岩区，每天产量约为40万桶。能源咨询公司Purvin & Gertz的一项研究显示，截至2020年，上述地区的产量可达到130万桶。要想达到200万桶的产量，监管政策需要向鼓励开采的方向倾斜。

    例如，美国政府根据“外大陆架油气开发租赁项目”（Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program），撤销了阿拉斯加州楚科奇海的钻探许可，并在太平洋海岸设立禁止钻探区。这两个地区的储量约为400亿桶。所以，美国国内石油产量每天增加100万桶以上完全可行：自2007年以来，美国原油产量已经增加了20%，约每天100万桶。历史经验告诉我们，高价格最终将导致产量增加，并勘探出新产区，其规模将超出所有预测。

    就目前而言，潜在的危险是，价格可能在如今已经高企的基础上继续飙升。近期或者在不远的未来，便可能会上演危险的一幕。由于产能不足，短期内购买行为的激增将会导致油价大幅上涨。而这种激增不一定要等到中东战争爆发，供应突然中断。

    Among the reasons were the shrinkage in production in the Gulf of Mexico following the British Petroleum (BP) disaster, and the hostility of big players such as Russia, Venezuela and Mexico towards private oil companies, leaving those nations to rely on inefficient domestic producers. "It became difficult for big oil companies to find places to invest where they didn't have to fear they'd be expropriated," says Kilian.

    The U.S. is loaded with oil reserves that can be produced far below both the current world price of $105 as well as what would be the world price in a normal market, between $70 and $80. Any extra oil the U.S. produces, then, must lower the world price. The question, as we'll see, is by how much. If the U.S. pumps lots of new supplies at $35 to $40, the cost of shale oil, total world demand could be satisfied without the priciest oil sands production at $80. All the new oil might even make the "most expensive barrel to clear the market" crude that scooped from the Gulf of Mexico at $55.

    Or, if demand keeps rising, the extra U.S. production could help total world output keep pace. That could hold prices at, say, the $70 or $80 level, whereas they might rise far higher in the absence of a surge in U.S. supplies.

More oil, lower prices

    So how much new oil must the U.S. must produce to substantially lower the world price? A lot. By Kreutzer's reckoning, an additional 1% increase in world output lowers the global price by between 2% and 3%. Today, the U.S. makes produces 6 million barrels a day of crude. So what would happen if the U.S. were able to produce an additional 2 million barrels a day? That's 2.3% of world supply, so that prices –– all other things being equal –– would fall between 4.6% and 6.9%. We're talking about a decline of between $4.70 to $7.10 a barrel, based on today's prices.

    But is an increase on that scale conceivable? Today, shale oil flowing from such booming fields as Bakken in North Dakota, Eagle Ford in Texas and Marcellus in Pennsylvania are pumping around 400,000 barrels per day. According to a study by energy consulting firm Purvin & Gertz, that number could rise to 1.3 million barrels by 2020. Reaching the 2 million mark would require a shift in regulatory policy in favor of far more drilling.

    For example, the administration has rescinded drilling permits for the Chukchi Sea in Alaska and left the Atlantic and Pacific coasts off-limits to production under the Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. Those two areas boast reserves equivalent to almost 40 billion barrels. Getting an extra 1 million or more barrels a day from domestic sources is indeed feasible: Since 2007, crude production has already jumped about 1 million barrels per day, or 20%. History tells us that high prices eventually create new production, and new discoveries, on a scale that confounds practically all the forecasts.

    Right now, the looming danger is that prices will soar far above today's already elevated levels. A perilous scenario is poised to play out, either soon or in future versions. Since capacity is extremely tight, any sudden surge in buying will enormously inflate prices. It doesn't have to be a sudden shutdown in supply, triggered by a war in the Middle East.