美国是否应该提高石油产量

     克莱采尔称：“恰恰相反，最大的危险在于，消费者可能担心石油供应将会中断，于是为了自保，纷纷大量囤积。而这种囤积行为，将导致石油价格在大事件发生之前便开始暴涨。”

    如果发生那种情况，即便需求相对较小幅度的增长，也会导致价格激增，而原因还是由于产能不足。但反过来也同样成立：即使产能有相对较小幅度的增长，也会为市场提供缓冲。而解决方案便是鼓励产油国加大开采力度，其中最佳目标便是美国。克莱采尔表示：“2008年，如果产能额外增加50万桶，油价也就不会有如此大幅度的上涨。”

    目前，市场的不稳定性已经达到了极限，而在石油储量最丰富的地区，每日骚乱不断。面临这些威胁，只有帮助提高美国的石油产量才是关键。不论说的多么好听，其实在经济学上的道理非常简单：增加石油产量对美国意义重大。

    译者：阿龙/汪皓

    "On the contrary," says Kreutzer, "the big danger is that customers will that fear oil supplies will be cut off, so they start storing big volumes of oil to protect themselves. All that buying causes an explosion in prices well before any big event happens."

    In that case, even a relatively small jump in demand could cause a sharp spike in prices––once again, because capacity is so tight. But the reverse is also true: A relatively small amount of new capacity could provide a crucial shock absorber. The solution is to encourage the producers to sink more wells and open new fields, and the best candidate is the U.S. "Even the addition of 500,000 barrels of extra capacity in 2008 would have prevented the price from spiking nearly so much," says Kreutzer.

    Hence, measures that help raise output in the U.S. are a crucial safeguard against the threat we're facing today, a volatile mix of a market stretched to the limit, and the daily reports of turmoil in the most oil-rich regions on the planet. The rhetoric is dizzying, but the economics are clear: More drilling makes sense for America.