中国是未来Facebook的重要潜在红利

    Facebook在去年二月推出最新广告策略时还试图为此构思了新的语言。通过向Facebook付费，广告客户可以在Facebook用户的新闻推送服务中突出显示“广告软文”（Sponsored Stories）。具体来说，只有发布的消息来自用户已经关注的的好友或企业发布时，用户才会看到这些广告软文。听起来不错，但广告软文的效用还远未得到实践检验。事实上，一些品牌甚至已经开始全盘质疑在Facebook上打广告的价值。去年花费1,000万美元在Facebook上做广告的通用汽车（GM）已经决定停止在该平台上打广告，因为该公司的营销经理们没有看到他们所期望的广告效应。谷歌误打误撞收获了搜索营销的利器，而Facebook还没有找到自己的法宝。

第二：移动

    Facebook用户转投移动设备的速度已经超过该社交网络能够自如应付的水平。据互联网信息服务提供商康姆斯科（Comscore）称，目前，Facebook美国用户通过智能手机和平板电脑等移动设备使用Facebook服务的时间约为7.4小时/月，高于通过台式机登录该网站的时间（约6.5小时/月）。

    这对该公司构成了两大挑战。首先，由于手机屏幕较小，Facebook用户看到的广告数量下降。这种令人不安的趋势对Facebook的一些最重要的广告市场造成了异常严重的冲击。Facebook在最近提交给监管部门的文件中称，这种转变趋势在美国、巴西和印度等地发展得最快。

    其次，即便Facebook能够拿出解决方案，提供更多更好的移动广告，该公司在移动策略上仍然落后于竞争对手。风靡市场的智能手机搭载的仍然是苹果公司（Apple）和谷歌的操作系统软件。随着时间的推移，谷歌有可能实现自由社交平台Google+与其安卓手机和平板电脑之间超越Facebook的无缝集成，从而在赢得消费者方面获得优势。Google+是Facebook的竞争对手。在过去的几年中，扎克伯格曾试图与苹果结成更紧密的关系。据知情人士称，Facebook与苹果公司已举行多轮磋商。但双方还未能找到一个令人信服的方式进行合作；与此同时，苹果公司没有将Facebook集成至其移动软件，而是选择了Twitter。

    为了与竞争对手抗衡，Facebook一直在大举收购移动资产。最值得注意的是，Facebook最近同意以10亿美元收购照片共享应用开发商Instagram。Facebook将因此获得一个拥有大量用户的高增长产品，以及具有丰富手持设备设计经验的优秀程序员团队，后者或许更为重要。据最近监管机构备案，这笔交易预计要到今年晚些时候才能完成。

第三：中国

    我们不妨把中国称作Facebook的黑洞：虽然Facebook贵为世界上最大的社交网络，但截至目前它还没有在中国开展业务。中国约有5亿网民，用数量来衡量，是世界最大的互联网市场。在中国，约有一半网民是本土社交网络的活跃用户。对于Facebook来说，虽然中国是一个巨大的、有利可图的潜在市场，但是眼下可能仍然难以把握。

    Facebook attempted to coin new language for this when it launched its latest advertising strategy last February. Advertisers can pay Facebook to highlight "sponsored stories" in users' Newsfeeds. The idea is that users will only see these sponsored stories when they are posted by a friend or a business with which they've already chosen to connect. It sounds great, but the effectiveness of sponsored stories is far from proven. In fact, some brands are questioning the value of advertising on Facebook altogether. GM (GM), which last year spent $10 million with Facebook, decided to stop advertising on the platform because the company's marketing executives weren't seeing the impact they desired. Unlike Google, which stumbled on a magic formula with search marketing, Facebook has yet to find its silver bullet.

No. 2 Mobile

    Facebook's users are decamping to mobile devices faster than the social network can keep up. American Facebookers who use the service on both their desktops and on mobile apps are spending more time on their smartphones and tablets -- about 7.4 hours each month, according to Comscore (SCOR) -- than on the website itself -- about 6.5 hours each month.

    This poses two significant challenges for the company. First, mobile screens are small so Facebook users see fewer ads. This unsettling trend is disproportionately impacting some of Facebook's most important advertising markets. In recent regulatory filings, Facebook said the shift is happening fastest in places like the United States, Brazil and India.

    Second, even if Facebook can figure out how to serve up more and better mobile ads, the company lags behind its rivals on mobile strategy. Apple (AAPL) and Google make the operating software for the most popular smartphones on the market. It's possible that over time, Google could integrate its Facebook competitor, Google+, into its Android phones and tablets more seamlessly than Facebook, giving it an advantage with consumers. In the last couple years, Zuckerberg has attempted to forge closer ties with Apple. The companies have held multiple rounds of discussions, according to people with knowledge of the talks. But they have yet to find a compelling way to collaborate, and in the meantime, Apple has chosen to integrate Twitter, rather than Facebook, into its mobile software.

    To combat its rivals, Facebook has moved aggressively to acquire mobile assets. Most notably, Facebook recently agreed to purchase the photo-sharing app Instagram for $1 billion. The company will get a fast-growing product with tons of users and -- perhaps more importantly -- a pool of talented programmers experienced in designing for handheld devices. The sale isn't expected to close, according to recent regulatory filings, until later this year.

No. 3 China

    Call it Facebook's black hole: The world's biggest social network, as of now, has no presence in China. With some 500 million people online, China is the world's largest Internet market by number of users. About half of those users are active on locally grown social networks. It's a vast and potentially lucrative market for Facebook, but for the time being it's likely to remain elusive.