中国是未来Facebook的重要潜在红利

    马克•扎克伯格对中国的兴趣已经不是什么秘密。他一直在学习普通话，并多次在不同的场合造访中国。扎克伯格最近一次到访中国是在三月份，当时他与美籍华人女友普莉希拉•陈一起到上海旅游。据知情人士称，扎克伯格和公司高管们已经就进军中国市场的风险和回报展开过密集的内部讨论。并且，他还和包括搜索巨子百度（Baidu）在内的中国各大互联网公司进行过磋商，以期发掘成立合资企业的可能性。Facebook要想在中国开展业务，几乎肯定要与一家中资企业成立合资公司。

    据悉，扎克伯格还将目光瞄准了中国的优秀工程师人才。不过，据知情人士称，近几个月来，有关中国市场的内部讨论和对外磋商已经偃旗息鼓，Facebook高管都将注意力放到了上市上。Facebook在首次公开募股说明书中承认了一个不争的事实，即中国市场“存在显著的法律和监管复杂性”，但该公司将“继续评估进入中国的可行性”。

    眼下，Facebook的跨国扩张动作可能会集中在类似日本和韩国这样的国家（与当地对手勉力竞争）以及包括印度和巴西在内的新兴市场（已经取得重大进展但仍然有很大增长空间）。展望未来，扎克伯格执掌的Facebook无疑还会尝试制订中国策略，但策略是否能够成功仍然是个未知数。毕竟，关于Facebook是否能进入中国市场要由中国政府、而不是Facebook自己说了算。这使得中国成为投资者心目中的潜在红利，但其价值可能永远无法实现。投资社交和移动公司私人股权的社交互联网基金（Social Internet Fund）创始人娄克纳说：“我不会为中国因素支付任何溢价。”

    ——Alex Konrad也参与了本文的报道工作。

    译者：默默

    Zuckerberg's interest in China is no secret. He has been learning Mandarin and has visited the country on various occasions, most recently in March, when he traveled to Shanghai with his Chinese-American girlfriend, Priscilla Chan. Inside Facebook, Zuckerberg's has led intense discussions among senior management on the risks and rewards of going into the Chinese market, according to people familiar with the situation. And he has held discussions with various Chinese Internet companies, including search giant Baidu, to explore potential joint ventures, which would almost certainly be required for Facebook to be allowed to operate in the country.

    Zuckerberg is also said to be eyeing China as a source of talented engineers. In recent months, however, the internal and external discussions about China have died down as the attention of Facebook's senior brass has been focused on the I.P.O., the people familiar with the discussions said. In its I.P.O. prospectus, Facebook acknowledged the obvious, saying the Chinese market "has substantial legal and regulatory complexities," but that the company will "continue to evaluate entering China."

    For now, Facebook is likely to focus its international expansion efforts in countries like Japan and South Korea, where it is struggling to compete with local rivals, and emerging markets like India and Brazil, where Facebook has made significant inroads but has lots of room to grow. Down the line, Zuckerberg and Co. will no doubt try to formulate a China strategy. Whether it will ever pay off is an open question. After all, it's the Chinese government, not Facebook, that will have final say on whether Facebook can enter the market there. That leaves investors thinking of China as potential bonus whose value may never be realized. "I'm not paying anything for China," says Lou Kerner, founder of the Social Internet Fund, which invests in private shares of social and mobile companies.

    -- with reporting by Alex Konrad