俄中角力民航客机新兴市场之争

    航空业的崩溃总是会让普京回想起俄罗斯混乱的90年代。当时俄罗斯从一个货真价实的全球强国一夜衰落成一个由暴徒和无能政客领导的二流国家。2005年，普京把俄罗斯各大飞机制造商合并成一个控股公司，由俄罗斯政府作为控股方。为了让航空业再次崛起，俄罗斯政府已经为这个行业注入了数十亿美元的资金，目标是要在2025年前销售出价值2,500亿美元的飞机。

    苏霍伊超级100支线客机于去年4月进入民航领域，它的竞争对手主要是巴西航空工业公司（Embrarer）和庞巴迪公司（Bombardier）的支线客机。这架飞机是在俄罗斯设计制造的，但它的许多关键部件却是由泰雷斯（Thales）、古德里奇（Goodrich）和汉尼韦尔（Honeywell）等外国供应商设计的，相当于拿到了一张西方的合格证。苏霍伊甚至聘请了波音公司作为顾问，虽然波音很可能不会在这款飞机的生产中发挥多大实际作用。

    尽管这款客机的售价只有3,000万美元左右，但却并未吸引买家蜂拥定购，现在已经确定的订单只有170架，离俄方希望的1,000架的销量还差得很远。这次亚洲六国巡展本来是想为这款支线客机造点声势，但结果显然适得其反。

    如果苏霍伊100真的获得了成功，这当然是件好事，但它的地位还是赶不上伊尔库特公司（Irkut）的MS-21客机。这款飞机于去年秋天推出，预计将于2017年投入服务。它瞄准的是民航业最有利可图的单通道中小型客机。目前这个市场主要被波音737和空客320所主宰，不过这两款飞机的设计已经有几十年没有大改过了。从一个例子就能看出这个市场对飞机制造商有多重要：波音737客机为波音创造的营业收入占到了该公司民航客机总收入的40%，利润更超过了全公司利润的一半以上。据波音公司预计，单通道客机的产值在未来20年里将达到将近2万亿美元，其中半数以上的需求来自亚洲。

    美国和西欧的民航市场以及许多国际知名航空公司显然已经是波音和空客的囊中物了，即便这样，在世界其它地区，留给俄罗斯的蛋糕仍然很大。首先俄罗斯人瞄准了自己的国内市场，目前俄罗斯国内75%的民航客机都是外国制造的。普京已经清楚地表示，既然俄罗斯的民航客机已经再度投产，那俄罗斯的航空公司就应当购买国产客机。再加上俄罗斯周边还有一些前苏联盟国和卫星国，因此俄制客机是有现成的市场的。尽管发生了这起坠机事件，那些客户还是会购买俄制飞机。

    Putin saw the collapse of the aircraft industry as a reminder of the chaotic 1990s, when Russia slipped from being a true world power to a country run by mobsters and incompetent politicians. In 2005, he merged all of the nation's various aircraft manufacturers into one holding company, with the Russian government as the controlling shareholder. The state would now pump billions into the industry to get it going again. The goal was to sell $250 billion worth of aircraft by 2025.

    The Sukoi 100 entered commercial service in April of last year and competes mostly with regional jet makers like Embrarer and Bombardier. The plane was built and designed in Russia but many of its major parts were designed by foreign suppliers such as Thales, Goodrich (GR) and Honeywell (HON), putting a western seal of approval on the airplane. It even hired Boeing as a consultant, though it most likely was not a big player in the production of the aircraft.

    But despite the jet's competitive price point of around $30 million, buyers have not been forthcoming, with firm commitments secured for only 170 jets. That falls far short of the 1000 jets the Russians had hoped to sell. The Asian tour was supposed to provide a boost to the regional jet's sales, but that has clearly nosedived.

    Yet while the success of the Sukhoi 100 would have been nice, it isn't as important as the launch of Irkut's MS-21. Announced last fall and scheduled to be in service by 2017, the jet would target the lucrative and most profitable part of the airline industry – the single-aisle class. Today, the market is dominated by Boeing's 737 and Airbus' A320, which haven't undergone a radical design change in decades. To get an idea of how important this market is for the jet makers, Boeing's 737 aircraft accounts for around 40% of the jet maker's commercial aviation revenue and well over half of its profits. Boeing estimates that the single-aisle market will be worth nearly $2 trillion over the next 20 years, with over half of that demand coming from Asia.

    Boeing and Airbus clearly have a lock on the U.S. and Western European markets, as well as many established international carriers, but the rest of the world is up for grabs. The Russians are first targeting their own domestic market, where 75% of the aircraft are currently foreign-made. Putin has in no uncertain terms made it clear that Russian airlines should be buying Russian-made jets, now that they are again in production. Along with the former Soviet states and its satellites, the Russian aircraft industry has a built in market. Even with the crash, those customers will be buying Russian.